WIRELESS WAGES BROADBAND, PORTABILITY BATTLES

Several years on, we may look back on 2003 as the year the wireless industry got serious about broadband. Mobile carriers in the U.S. are starting to overcome their initial wariness in deploying newer generation network technologies, as some CDMA1X RTT networks are evolving to CDMA 1X EV-DO, and GPRS deployments appear ready to mature into EDGE overlays. Likewise, developers of next-gen wireless equipment may find a more receptive audience at this year's Supercomm.

At the same time, however, the industry is preparing to contend with a potentially damaging mandate for wireless number portability (WNP). Though large incumbent carriers continue to argue against the measure, portability-enabling solutions are still scheduled for mandatory implementation by late November.

For now, mobile carriers are focusing on broadband, expanding network coverage, adopting new devices and developing new services.

While the term “broadband wireless” came to most signify fixed Wi-Fi hot spot access during the last two years, carriers seem intent on making sure users have mobile alternatives. For example, Verizon Wireless' limited launch of CDMA1X EV-DO in Washington, D.C., and San Diego — as well as near-term migrations to EDGE by AT&T Wireless and Cingular Wireless — will provide users with bandwidth and applications that rival shared Wi-Fi signals and telco DSL offerings.

“If you are telecommuting to a corporate enterprise and you have an EV-DO card for your laptop, it becomes a big possibility as a replacement for DSL or cable,” said Cindy Patterson, vice president of enterprise data sales at Verizon Wireless.

However, while the mobile industry is busy making progress toward creating a potential wireless alternative to wireline broadband, it also will have to deal with an issue that affected the wireline industry long ago: number portability.

Many wireless carriers support wireline number portability because it makes it even easier for a wireline customer looking to unplug from traditional telco service to go totally wireless. When it comes to WNP, though, mobile carriers are fighting the issue, saying that wireless already enjoys the level of competition that wireline portability was intended to encourage.

It's probably an uphill battle, given that it doesn't look like the FCC will budge from the November mandate (see story on page 36). “There's always a chance the mandate could be delayed,” said Tom Bullotta, senior manager of the communications practice with WNP consulting group Acumen Solutions. “It's not likely, but it's happened before.”

Meanwhile, how big an impact WNP will have — and for how long — is unclear, but it likely means at least a sharp, short-term increase in customer churn.

“Churn could go up past 3% industrywide again,” said Martin Dunsby, vice president of operations at inCode Telecom. “There will probably be a very active six months of customers switching service providers before churn settles down again.”

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