WIRELESS:WiMAX in Focus

While some technologies on Telephony’s Ten-to-Watch list are expected to take off in 2004, WiMAX—otherwise known as the 802.16 metropolitan area network standard—probably will not see broad adoption until 2005. But that doesn’t mean the next year will be uneventful.

For starters, following approval of the initial 802.16a standard earlier this year, the 802.16e standard for seamless mobility and quality of service will likely be published in the next few months, said Margaret LaBrecque, president of the WiMAX Forum and WiMAX product manager at Intel. She said that copies of the 802.16e specification have been sent to the IEEE, reflecting the ambitions of the WiMAX community to promote the technology as carrier-grade.

So far, there are very few vendors with commercial 802.16a equipment available, and many are believed to be waiting for the 802.16e spec—that, and more obvious carrier interest in WiMAX. Carlton O’Neal, vice president of marketing at Alvarion, said his company is developing an 802.16a network access product “with 802.16e hooks. We’re all letter jockeys now, but there’s no reason you can’t have 802.16a and capabilities for 802.16e in the same product.”

O’Neal said new rules for wireline-to-wireless portability could drive U.S. telcos to pursue WiMAX deployment, but other international carriers likely will make the first investments. Others see WiMAX facing difficult prospects for advancement in the early going because broadband wireless companies are just recovering from past technology and economic pitfalls.

“There is a great deal of vendor resistance, operator reluctance and general market confusion,” said John Yunker, analyst at Pyramid Research, which recently published its latest report “WiMAX and Wi-Fi: Unwiring the World.” Yunker said the market will advance in two stages, the first being the commercial availability of equipment “that costs and functions a lot like existing broadband wireless access equipment.” In the second stage, 802.16e will be embedded in end user devices that will allow portability within WiMAX hot zones. Yunker also said he thinks WiMAX will garner about 60% of the broadband wireless market by 2008.

Many of the early buyers of WiMAX equipment in the U.S. are expected to be regional or smaller wireless ISPs, but there is reason aside from portability to believe large carriers could be ready to act. For example, Nextel Communications recently bought MCI’s extensive collection of MMDS spectrum licenses. Also, it does not have a clear 3G path like other mobile carriers, and would have few barriers to invest in alternative technologies. In addition, BellSouth has been very active in testing network facilities using its vast MMDS and WCS spectrum properties, and could potentially use either spectrum swath for WiMAX deployment.

Though Sprint is the only other large owner of licensed spectrum that could be used to deploy WiMAX, the technology could use licensed or unlicensed bands, and the federal government could always allocate more spectrum. Having begun to lose access line revenue, “the RBOCs are at a competitive disadvantage now,” O’Neal said. “Could we see the government allocate more spectrum that they could use for deployment?”