PORT WHINE

Mobile phone service is something about which we all love to complain. If you find yourself in a conversational lull at a party, make a comment about either your mobile carrier or the torturous nature of airport security, and the proceedings will regain vigor.

But portability is supposed to be the real conversation killer. All you have to do is switch. That one idea is supposed to send chills running down the spines of carrier executives. Market watchers speculate that portability could upend the mobile industry as we know it, causing consolidation between suddenly stronger and suddenly weaker companies.

Let's call it right now: When all is said and done—let's say after the next six months—portability will have changed very little about the mobile market. There are no numbers, no research or surveys, no experience in statistical analysis to back this up—only a cynical faith in human nature. That doesn't mean people won't switch. They will, and then they will find something else to complain about. Maybe they'll switch back. Or maybe they'll switch to yet another carrier.

It's in our nature to think about our complaints, rather than what we really want and what the trade-off would be for getting it. Will it be better customer service in exchange for coverage? Will it be better coverage in exchange for price?

The biggest mistake customers can make in the next few months is not thinking about the trade-off. The biggest mistake carriers can make is assuming that the big switch will make everyone happy.