NUMBER PORTABILITY DEBUT DRAWS NERVOUS CUSTOMERS

Wireless carriers reported substantial increases in store and Web site traffic on the first day of local number portability, although the predicted flood of porting requests didn't materialize and probably won't until at least the first or second quarter of 2004.

Verizon Wireless reported its store traffic increased by 200% to 400% on Nov. 24—the first day users in the top 100 metropolitan service areas could port their numbers to another carrier—compared with the Monday before Thanksgiving last year.

Industry analyst Mobile Competency reported store traffic across all carriers increased three to four times, with eight-fold increases during peak periods.

However, a random check of downtown Chicago retail wireless stores on the first day found traffic volumes were about the same as any other Monday. “We expected more activity based on the hype,” said Kyishia Gyles, assistant manager for Areawide Cellular, which resells AT'T Wireless and Verizon Wireless services.

Gyles and other store managers interviewed also said customers on day one primarily were looking for information, not to port their numbers. “They wanted to know about the process; how difficult it is, how long it takes,” said Ricardo Cruz, a store manager for U.S. Cellular. “People seemed to be nervous. They want to see what happens first, then decide.”

That didn't surprise Bob Egan, president and founder of Mobile Competency, who estimated that about 100,000 wireless customers ported their numbers on the first day. “The bottom line is that consumers don't trust carriers,” Egan said. “They would be really upset if they lost their cell phones for an extended period. They're not ready to jump in yet.”

That could change though as the holiday shopping season gets into full swing, according to Dane Snowden, chief of the FCC's consumer and governmental affairs bureau. “As we get closer to the weekend, we should see more activity,” he said.

While acknowledging the typical fourth-quarter surge in sales, Tole Hart, an analyst with Gartner, didn't think it would have much impact on the number of porting requests. “More of those phones will be bought by new users rather than by people who are going to be looking to churn,” Hart said.

The number of user contracts expiring at the end of the year is the more important factor, said Egan. “Consumers aren't going to do much porting until then because they're not going to pay a penalty to move from one carrier to another,” Egan said.

Most analysts are predicting an increase in porting requests won't occur until the first or second quarter of next year, after business customers—particularly enterprises—lose their reticence. “They won't take a chance on porting in the fourth quarter because that's when everyone makes their money,” Egan said.

Those who did port encountered few problems. Snowden reported that the FCC's consumer center received zero complaints on the first day.

“The processes and systems were working as they should and were handling the volume,” said John Comisky, vice president of operations for Verizon Wireless. Verizon Wireless, however, was unable to port its customers to one carrier, which Egan identified as AT'T Wireless. “They probably think that was more of a problem than we do,” Comisky said.

Carriers deserve credit for pulling together, said John Muleta, bureau chief of the FCC's Wireless Telecommunications Bureau. But they also need a big push from the commission.

“It was great that the carriers started to work together on intercarrier testing,” Muleta said. “We kept pressure on them, but allowed the market to work out the kinks.”