NETWORK INFRASTRUCTURE: LESS OF THE SAME

If you're hoping for exciting new network infrastructure developments to create a buzz at the CTIA's Wireless 2003 show, be prepared to be mostly disappointed. The hot topics on the show floor in New Orleans will instead center around two areas that have both already received plenty of attention: third-generation wireless technologies, and equipment to help lower the costs of running wireless networks.

But don't expect any breakthroughs in either of these areas. “I really don't expect to see much in the line of announcements regarding infrastructure, outside of everyone saying they have CDMA, 1XRTT, 1X EVDO and GSM with EDGE, which is all old news,” said Ray Jodin, an analyst with Instat/MDR.

Since it's “old news,” the next step for the vendors seems to be showing off the efficacy of their products. Both Lucent Technologies and Nortel Networks, for example, will demonstrate 3G applications (run on miniature 3G networks) on the show floor, presumably to convince attendees of how useful the technology can be in everyday life.

With Wireless 2003 focusing on well-known topics, the vendors in the transmission technology wars will keep the heat on with their rhetoric. According to Keith Malinson, an analyst with The Yankee Group, look for CDMA vendors to crow about gains made in Korea and Japan.

On the other side of the aisle, the GSM vendors will be forced to talk up EDGE technology, which hasn't been deployed as widely as its transmission-speed counterpart, CDMA's 1XRTT, said Brent Iadarola, industry analyst for Frost & Sullivan's Mobile Communications Group. “The vendors will be talking about the migration path and upgrades, particularly on the GSM side with EDGE because it competes more directly with 1X,” he said.

Then why are the same topics that dominated earlier shows going to rule this year's wireless gathering? Blame the economy, which has forced many vendors to cut their R&D budgets and carriers to reduce their capital spending.

Instead, look for vendors to announce products aimed at lowering the operating costs of networks: Alcatel, for instance, has plans to introduce new microwave radios for wireless backhaul, which according to Scott Nelson, the company's senior manager for marketing and business development, will help reduce leased line costs. Similarly, Instat/MDR's Jodin expects vendors to announce incremental improvements in areas such as antenna efficiency.

Despite the generally quiet tone many expect from the show, at least one industry watcher said that Wi-Fi infrastructure will generate some buzz. With growing cooperation between hot spot providers and wireless carriers, look for vendors to push products that encourage integration of these networks, said Ken Rehbehn, principal analyst at Current Analysis. “We'll see a lot with wireless LAN integration for mobile operators' infrastructure, making it easy for customers to use hot spots,” he said.

Given what most vendors have said about their plans for the show so far, if we get even that, we should be grateful.