View: Will They, or Won’t They?

I’m not a soap opera watcher, per se. I don’t tune in to “Days of our Lives” or “All My Children.” However, I am addicted to “The NextWave Nexus.” Who needs TV when you have a real-life drama?

This week, NextWave received installments in the form of $2.5 billion in debt financing and $3 billion in convertible preferred stock. Qualcomm in its show of support and business-building acumen wrote out a check for $300 million.

From this vantage point, it appears the company is ready to forge ahead in its buildout of the NextWave network in 95 U.S. markets. Also, viewing the substantial war chest, it appears that Wall Street and other money people believe the market can support another wireless carrier and that wireless is a solid bet.

Allen Salmasi, NextWave chairman and CEO, presented his plan to Wall Street earlier this week. In it, he stated his goal to launch the cdma 2000 data network in dozens of markets in a mere four months and to expand to 95 markets by April 2002. The company then plans to add voice services by the end of next year.

This, in itself, is an inspired, albeit gutsy, move. If NextWave were to enter the market with voice services, the other incumbents would feast on the NextWave carcass for lunch. It would be too difficult to build, perfect, market and load the voice network in direct competition with the tried-and-true incumbents. Those carriers would simply play anything-you-can-do, we-can-do-better- faster-cheaper.

However, launching its data network first puts NextWave on a more level playing field. The other national CDMA carriers are making their data network preparations now.

Sprint PCS plans to begin its 1XRTT rollout later this year, with Verizon following suit shortly thereafter. Conceivably, NextWave could enter the market when advanced always-on data services are only gaining momentum.

Unfortunately, it’s not as simple as just that. Inspiration alone doesn’t guarantee success. Need I remind you of Metricom and Ricochet? Likewise, legal wrangling continues to drive the plot development behind-the-scenes. The FCC has requested a delay so it can appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court regarding its giveth-and-taketh-away approach to license distribution. Later this week, NextWave is filing its opposition to the FCC’s request. A ruling could come at any time. If the Supreme Court agrees to hear the case, it could be another nine months before a decision is rendered.

Would such a delay force NextWave’s hand? Salmasi is being coy. On one hand, he shows every indication of building out the network. On the other hand, he says he and the board aren’t rejecting any offers. Just like any compelling soap opera, these kinds of plot twists keep you tuning in day after day.