View: Circumstantial evidence

Monday, NTT DoCoMo launched it 3G services. The company is offering subscribers zippy new phones that can deliver Internet data and video at unprecedented speeds.

Marketed under the name Freedom of Mobile Multimedia Access, or FOMA, it sounds more like a governmental legislative ruling than a cool device and service for subscribers. NTT plans to offer FOMA across Japan within 12 months, but doesn’t expect to see any profit for about four years.

The world’s carriers will be watching the performance of NTT DoCoMo’s FOMA and the reaction of its subscribers to the service. On the one hand, customers may embrace it as enthusiastically as they took up I-Mode. On the other hand, they may take a wait-and-see-if-the-price-comes-down approach.

Either way, I doubt there will be a direct correlation between that performance and the potential here in the United States. Even if U.S. carriers already had navigated the rough spectrum waters and had begun to deliver 3G service, the consumers in Japan are not reflective of U.S. subscribers.

If the takeup rate for 3G is strong in Japan, could it be because the penetration rate of home computers and laptops is substantially lower than in the United States? Could it be that derivation of unique information may be stronger there than it is here in a more entertainment-driven society? Could it be that the price point is right? Maybe consumer confidence is high. It goes on and on.

I wish NTT DoCoMo and all other 3G carriers tremendous success in this new service arena. However, I, for one, am not going to be too quick to pass the final judgment on 3G when it flourishes or fails with one carrier.

What do you think? Write to rwickham@primediabusiness.com