Come Rain or Come Shine

Intuitively, it might seem that any cutback in spending would negatively affect the rollout of next-generation gear — be it optical or wireless. But the general consensus among analysts and industry executives is that the slowdown in vendor-financing deals will have little effect on the adoption rate of new technology.

Mike Meldahl, president of Touch America, points out that service providers with good prospects for long-term survival can still buy the latest gear, but on a smaller scale.

“Usually new technology will work for a small startup as well as it will for a big carrier,” says Meldahl. “You don't necessarily have to buy $5 billion worth of equipment to take advantage of new technology.”

Conversely, Standard & Poor's director Bruce Hyman is confident that big carriers won't feel a chill from the lack of vendor financing.

“Leading carriers were among the first to deploy new technology en masse,” says Hyman. “And, they are the least likely to have sought vendor financing in the first place.”

So, like time, progress and ol' man river, next-gen gear will just keep rolling along — vendor financing or not.