Squeezing out the early adopter

The reign of the early adopter is ending

Device-makers have always targeted these gadget-savvy technophiles, knowing that their approval or disapproval would trickle down to the mass consumer market. But the outsized influence of the early adopter is now on the wane, according to RISC International, a global consumer behavior consultancy.

Early adopters, who typically comprise 4% to 6% of any given consumer market, are being squeezed out by a much broader consumer segment that is enthusiastic about technology but isn't necessarily tech-savvy, said Sharon Greene, managing director of RISC. These are the selective adopters, and vendors are starting to change their marketing messages to target them directly, Greene said.

“Apple has been particularly good about simplifying the marketing message,” Greene said. “Apple isn't talking about megs and pixels.” Instead, Apple markets the simplicity of the iPhone's interface and the utility of its applications, a message Apple wouldn't adopt if it were going after a more technically sophisticated crowd. “The power-user isn't the be-all, end-all,” Greene said. “There is a much larger market out there, and Apple bridged that gap.”

The early adopters even have helped accelerate their own demise, Greene said. The rise of social networking and online communities has allowed early adopters to share their views on new technology and services much more quickly and broadly. Meanwhile, the average consumer has become much more comfortable using the Web to gather information about technology. The result, Greene said, is that the gap between early adoption and selective adoption now is narrowing as the time it takes for a particular technology to prove itself diminishes.

“Your selective adopters went online a lot faster and started asking questions a lot sooner,” Greene said. “You're getting a much faster cycle of adoption.”