inCode predicts changes in 2009 for wireless industry

The wireless market faces a serious shakeup in 2009, a major network operator outsources its network, and non-telecom players pose a bigger threat to the telecom industry in 2009, according to inCode, a business strategy and technology consulting firm that claims an 80% accuracy rating of past predictions.

In wireless, the rich will get richer, but the low-cost guys at the bottom -- including Leap Wireless, US Cellular and MetroPCS – will also thrive by focusing on specific segments, said Rob Prudhomme, vice president of Practice Development for inCode. It’s the service providers and equipment vendors stuck in the middle that face a scary future, and that group includes Sprint, T-Mobile, Motorola, Alcatel-Lucent and Nortel Networks, Prudhomme said. Nokia and Ericsson lead the wireless industry with more than 60% market share, and Huawei and ZTE Technologies compete effectively on price at the bottom, he said. InCode’s prediction is that the industry will shrink by one major operator and one major infrastructure vendor.

Other predictions:

2. Cord-cutters will move at faster rates to low-cost wireless providers such as Leap and Metro, Prudhomme said. “As people look at their household budgets, those that have to choose between wireless and fixed-line services are going to move to unlimited-plan carriers,” he said. “Companies like Leap and Metro PCS, which focus on wireline replacement at the low end of the market, [will] see their fortunes improve dramatically.” The movement to wireless data and away from wireline broadband won’t be as fast.

3. Large private equity and venture capital firms bypass high-tech investment opportunities except those with the lowest risk profiles. That means less innovation in traditional wireless technology and very few large-scale deals, Prudhomme said. VC-funded firms will struggle, which may increase the shift in innovation to major Internet firms such as Google, Apple and Microsoft, increasing these firms’ threat to traditional wireless players. “There is not much capital available to get deals done, so cash-rich companies like Google, who have already made forays into the space, can extend their business models,” Prudhomme said. “The word is: Batten down the hatches, make your cash last, slow your burn rate. Stop hiring and try to focus on a few things you are doing well at the time.”