Clearwire slows WiMax launch

The new Clearwire launched its second WiMax mobile broadband network today, switching its longtime trial network in Portland, Ore., over to a commercial network. The launch is the first under Clearwire’s new “Clear” brand and serves as a West Coast compliment to the network Sprint launched in Baltimore last fall. The rollout of the nationwide network, however, is going more slowly than Sprint and Clearwire first projected when they announced the combined company last year, leading some analysts to predict that Clearwire’s deployment will be much more cautious and deliberate than originally expected.

Before the merger of Sprint’s WiMax assets with Clearwire, Sprint had plans to launch three networks: Baltimore, Washington, D.C., and Chicago. However, Sprint only launched its Xohm network in Baltimore by year-end, putting off the other two markets for this year. The pre-merger Clearwire had also built out by year-end networks in Atlanta, Las Vegas and Grand Rapids, Mich., none of which have yet launched, though Clearwire never set any specific target date for commercial deployment. That led ThinkEquity analyst Eric Kainer to predict that Clearwire will no longer plan an initial flurry of market launches, even though the infrastructure is in place. Rather, he is projecting a more deliberate rollout schedule, resulting in a third market going live only in the second quarter, followed by two more launches in the third quarter and an additional five by the end of the year.

Kainer’s timeline would mean just 10 markets up and running by the end of 2009, several of which would be small or mid-sized markets, putting Clearwire quite some distance from its stated goal of having a third to half of the US population covered by the end of 2010. Verizon Wireless recently announced plans to accelerate its own 4G long-term evolution rollout, launching in 2009 instead of 2010, which could leave Clearwire deploying its 4G networks concurrently with Verizon.

While slowing down its rollout might sacrifice the competitive high ground, Clearwire would gain some capital breathing room, Kainer pointed out. After the merger, Clearwire gained $3.2 billion in capital from investors Intel, Google, Comcast and other cable operators. But Clearwire also acknowledged it would have to go back to the capital markets for as much as $2.3 billion to complete its nationwide rollout, a more and more difficult task considering today’s investment environment. Scaling back the scope of the rollout would bring in lower revenue and may push out Clearwire’s break-even date to 2014, but it would also greatly reduce the rate it burns through cash, Kainer said. It might take longer for Clearwire to gain a sizable footprint, but it wouldn’t need to seek more cash until mid-2010, Kainer said.