2004 Will Be the Year of Wireless (Really)

Somewhat serendipitously (if serendipity means procrastination), I am writing this column on Nov. 24, 2003 — the day local number portability takes effect in the U.S. This is also my tenth year of writing about telecom, and it's a safe bet I've written something in each of those years that predicted the following to be the year that wireless really took off, either in terms of next-generation technology or mobile data applications or wireline displacement — or all of the above.

I haven't exactly been wrong, as each of those years have brought their fair share of innovation and industry transformation, even in the face of economic tumult. But I really mean it this time: 2004 will be the year that wireless will deliver on the hype that has accompanied it for so long.

There are plenty of reasons why next year will likely be different (advancements in handset technology toward the multimedia ideal, network evolution toward 3G, data applications that appeal to consumer and enterprise customers alike, Wi-Fi), but local number portability is the most significant. The ability of wireless consumers to keep their numbers when they change service providers allows the mobile sector to live up to its name, finally.

The cries of wireless service providers to the contrary, number portability makes the wireless sector — already a competitive model for other industries to follow — truly competitive. It gives new, real meaning to the idea of consumer choice. And given the FCC's last-minute move to include wireline-to-wireless porting in its mandate, it makes the idea of wireless replacement a tangible notion for consumers — an idea the wireless industry itself has held for many years.

That's a lot for an industry to live up to, which is another reason I believe 2004 will be the year of wireless. The wireline side of the telecom business has tacitly feared the mobility advantages of wireless for some time, but the FCC made it even more real. That means wireless service providers will have to live up to their promises about not just mobility, but service quality and evolution as well.

For that to be reality, wireless service providers will have to keep their networks and their service delivery efforts on the cutting edge of technology, applications development and operational issues to stay one step ahead of the competition, and also one step ahead of consumers themselves.

Thanks to local number portability, wireless now competes on a much larger stage, and in entirely different ways than it formerly did. The wireless industry has always wanted to be a mainstream communications player, second to none, with capabilities and technologies that rivaled anything the landline sector could offer. Now is its chance: 2004 is the year for wireless to prove everything it's always claimed it's capable of achieving.

And if I'm wrong, there's always next year, right?