The Total Communicator's Reality

Wireless devices have evolved into much more than simple tools providing 2-way voice communications. An increasing number of consumers use the units for faxing, voice and data messaging, paging, and Internet access. As wireless phones evolve, so does consumer demand for even greater access and convenience.

Enter the concept of a total communicator, a device many envision will combine all of the functions and capabilities available in today's wireless devices, satellite systems, palmtop computers -- and even a few of tomorrow's popular innovations -- into a single portable unit.

DEFINING A TOTAL COMMUNICATOR Wireless manufacturers and carriers have many ideas about what features should be a vital part of any total communicator package. Definitions vary but typically include voice, data, fax, paging, global coverage and multiband capabilities combined into a unit the size of a modern wireless phone.

"It all really depends on what you term a total communicator," said Glenn James, Deloitte & Touche industry consultant. "It would have to be smaller than anything currently on the market, and I need to be able to use it anywhere, anytime."

The life expectancy of the product also needs attention, especially if the cost initially exceeds the $1,000 range as many anticipate.

"I would want to have something I could grow into without having to ditch the whole thing a couple of years from now and telling all of my customers they need to buy new units," said Ken Woo, AT&T Wireless Services external communications manager.

Other suggestions included voice-recognition capabilities, a touch-screen user interface, language translation and high data-transmission, the Holy Grail of the wireless industry that would enable Internet, multimedia and other data-intensive applications.

"With third generation, the key element is going to be higher data rates, which will allow us to support multimedia capabilities," said Haroon Alvi, Nokia director of business development. "So an important aspect of a total communicator would be the ability to support multimedia as well as provide more seamless connectivity to the corporate intranet."

In a nutshell, the industry demands the best of a computer and high-end wireless phone all rolled into one high-speed, multifunctional portable unit -- and preferably at a price acceptable to the average consumer.

Under such demanding criteria, no single product on the market today qualifies as a total-communicator package. However, there are a number of high-end products currently available or scheduled for release that conceivably come close to fitting the bill.

The Nokia 9000 Communicator and planned introduction of the 9110 Communicator combine many features of a cellular phone and a portable computer. Both provide access to fax, e-mail and short messages, Internet services, an electronic calendar, address book, notepad, calculator, and world clock.

Other wireless devices currently on the market fulfill several of the expectations for a total communicator package, but their downfall generally involves a limited ability to combine all of the desired features into a single unit.

"There are a lot of various different types of devices out there right now, and it would be nice to push them all into one," Woo said. "But every one of them has a shortcoming."

PROBLEMS TO OVERCOME The telecommunications industry must overcome a number of challenges before the prospect of a true total-communicator package can be a reality. Several can be surmounted in the near future, while others arguably remain years away.

The problem of worldwide interoperability between phones remains an obstacle. Manufacturers have developed solutions they hope eventually will settle concerns about interoperability, including dual-mode phones that can switch between analog or digital frequencies in the United States and interchangeable SIM chips for travel to foreign countries.

Ericsson, Siemens and other vendors are developing multiband world phones that automatically alternate between different bands. These band options eliminate the need for consumers to purchase two or more phones to maintain coverage.

"We have dual-band devices now, and triple-band devices are on the horizon," Nokia's Alvi said. "When those are available, and the costs are appropriate, we will have a device that works anywhere -- the U.S., Europe, Africa and Asia-Pacific."

Though multiband phones and roaming agreements can improve worldwide coverage substantially, most consumers remain limited to areas boasting an established wireless infrastructure -- not a common sight in remote oceanic regions or less-populated land areas. Figures from Iridium indicate that 66% of the United States and 90% of the planet's geography remain beyond the reach of ground-based wireless infrastructure, eliminating ground-based units from consideration as total communicators.

"A real universal communicator would need to have satellite capability to give you worldwide coverage," said Harry Young, The Strategis Group consultant.

The Iridium network of 66 satellites will provide the most complete global coverage when it is commercially available. The system will use cellular and terrestrial signals when available or satellite links when necessary. Other satellite carriers, including ICO Global Communications, Inmarsat and GlobalStar, provide near-global coverage, or will within the next few years.

Satellite coverage capability comes at a price, however. Data transmission rates are slow (less than 3kb/s), and devices are expensive and typically equate to the size of a laptop computer -- not including attachments necessary for other functions.

Many carriers expect units eventually will support multiple bands and even access the satellite network when necessary.

"We expect -- I think all the carriers do -- to have phones that are dual- or tri-mode and are digital PCS and then finally satellite (capable)," said Tom Murphy, Sprint PCS spokesman.

USER FRIENDLINESS The user-interface for a total communicator also poses a challenge for developers. Voice-recognition technology, although substantially improved in recent years, still has a long way to go before it can be considered a viable alternative. Pen and touch-screen interfaces have made significant strides but also remain limited in overall use.

There are few good input methods available with today's technology, according to Phil Redman, the Yankee Group program manager for wireless mobile communications. Because voice recognition is still lacking in mobile environments for inputting information into a device, end users almost always are stuck with a pen input or a keyboard.

Traditional keyboards remain as effective and reliable as an old Volvo, but also seem to take up as much space. Although customers want multiple functions, few want to carry a device any larger than a modern wireless device.

"For any kind of mobile device, you do not want it to be too big where you can't stick it in your pocket and easily take it with you," Redman said.

Cost also poses a concern among potential consumers, according to Woo, especially for something with the expected price tag on a total communicator. Convincing customers to spend hundreds or even thousands of dollars for the offering may prove challenging to even the most persuasive carrier or vendor.

"It just depends on which segment you are in and what your needs are," Woo said. "If I am a business user, it is available at a reasonable price and the company is going to pay for it, then I would say 'OK.' But if I am a consumer, then the price is going to be a huge issue."

If the expense of a total communicator gets too high, Young said most people simply would continue to put up with the inconvenience of the combination of several less-expensive items to avoid the high cost of a single unit.

"It comes down to what people are willing to put up with -- a couple of devices or one device that does everything," Young said. "(If it is too expensive) a lot of people would prefer to have several."

Industry experts predict that the necessary technology soon will exist to combine all of these expectations into a single, low-cost unit, though many question whether the industry can cooperate for its development. There has been some recent progress, including the Symbian and Bluetooth pacts, but typically these are viewed as exceptions to the norm.

"Business competition probably is the biggest road-bump to getting where we want to go," Woo said. "Each manufacturer has its own agenda and understandably needs to be competitive. But it is kind of like the IMT-2000 stuff: Try to get anyone in the same room to agree on any one standard, I think you are in for a big, bloody brawl."

MARKET POTENTIAL If the industry overcomes these challenges, the introduction of a total communicator likely would appeal only to a small segment of the wireless market, at least initially. The earliest customers would consist of high-end users, executives and those who travel to out-of-the-way locations or undeveloped countries.

Industry consultants said these market segments remain too insignificant for the financial and technological investment necessary to develop a total communicator device. Vendors would prefer to wait until today's market matures.

"I am not sure there is a market for it yet," James said. "It would sort of be like building a 747 for a short route with only 20 passengers: You would have 400 empty seats left on it."

The remaining seats likely will fill up fast, however, especially after developers solve the interface and product-size questions.

"It will start slow, probably hitting big with heavy travelers, business people and others in that niche," agreed Tom McCabe, Bosch Telecom vice president of product management and strategic planning. "After it goes through substantial miniaturization, and they figure out the user-interface question, it will probably take off like the cellular industry did ... almost everyone will want one."

So manufacturers and carriers will continue to plan for tomorrow and anticipate demand. But because everyone has a different concept of a total communicator, the expected time frame for when such a device will be introduced also varies. Expectations range from a few months to a few years.

"Basic offerings should be here within a year, and maybe even something that can do a little bit more than that," Young predicted.

Vendors and carriers already are preparing early versions of a total communicator, and should display a glimpse of products at industry shows throughout the fall.

Others predicted a wait of at least five to 10 years before a total communicator matching the desired criteria will enter the marketplace. Some aspects, especially high-speed data transmission and improved voice recognition, likely will remain under development well after the millenium. And it likely will take several additional years to combine all of the necessary ingredients into one small form factor.

"There really is no perfect device out there yet, and there likely won't be for a while," Redman said. "Someone or some company is going to really have to rethink this thing and come up with something out of the box, some really innovative technology to really be successful in this market."

Most in the industry believe these obstacles eventually will be resolved and that a total communicator package will enter and be embraced by the market.

"I think there will be things that are going to be even more integrated in the future," said David Kurt, Motorola spokesperson. "There is going to be an evolution out there."