Taking It to the Streets

This week, the Universal Wireless Communications Consortium (UWCC) announced that it had doubled its annual growth rate in the last 12 months. At yearend 1997, the consortium estimated it had 9.2 million TDMA subscribers around the world. This year, it approximates that figure to reach 18.5 million subscribers.

In the announcement, the consortium said that it was clearly a 3-horse race between GSM, TDMA and CDMA, with TDMA in second place behind GSM's 79 million subscribers.

Initially, the announcement began with the usual fanfare all too familiar to this 3-way technology race.

"Too often, TDMA is left out of the technology debate," said Michael Buhrmann, UWCC president. "The reality is that we have been quietly optimizing our networks and planning for the future. TDMA systems are now in 70 countries throughout the world, with almost complete coverage in North and South America."

However, upon further discussion with Buhrmann, it became clear that a more significant chapter in the digital battles has opened. He explained that it is no longer a matter of three groups "duking" it out. He said that all three technologies have the strength to compete because there is a lot of opportunity and plenty of room for growth.

Perhaps given Buhrmann's pronouncement, the 3-way horse race that the UWCC used to break its growth-rate numbers no longer has legs. A look at the automotive industry reveals the better analogy and fabled conclusions.

When the Model T was the only product on the market, cost, choice and innovation were limited. But as more car manufacturers came out at full throttle, the resulting competition made each of the previous manufacturers better. They were driven, so to speak, to provide better products at more reasonable prices and flood the market with innovative designs that appealed to America's newborn road warriors. The key for manufacturers to win that race has since lain squarely in the hands of consumers.

Over time, the big three car manufacturers competed effectively in the United States taking advantage of that huge opportunity for growth, similar to digital's opportunity. However, not long after, new competitors, predominantly from Japan and Germany, forced Detroit back to its drawing boards to review its blueprints for the future. The success of Japanese automotive products proved that consumers found a better product that met their needs.

Today's digital suppliers and carriers now will be driven in similar ways. Of course, they will have to keep their eyes on the technology goals of high-quality voice and data transmission. However, with the three choices in the market, they also will have to develop a watchful eye and keep an open ear to how consumers are reacting.

And this is where it gets really interesting. For all of the technology performance discussions that have taken place within this industry over the last five years, they won't mean a thing if subscribers judge and conclude that one carrier's system sounds cleaner, better, clearer than the others.

History has proved the ultimate power of the consumer over technology. Remember the Edsel?