Sunspots Hit 11-Year High

Solar storms could knock out service on wireless networks in the coming years as the sun reaches the apex of its 11-year cycle of solar flares, but they'd have to be pretty intense, according to wireless-service providers.

Sunspots are dark blemishes on the solar surface that occur with the most frequency every 11 years, a period called the solar maximum. During the maximum, the northern and southern lights are more spectacular than usual and can be seen far beyond the Earth's poles. Solar flares occur when magnetic energy in the sun's atmosphere is suddenly released in a force equivalent to millions of 100-megaton hydrogen bombs, and radiation is emitted across the magnetic spectrum.

The current cycle is supposed to peak sometime later this year, according to the National Weather Service. Solar activity has been increasing for months and should continue to build throughout the year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.

What effect the solar maximum might have on wireless networks is less clear. Most voice-centric networks are terrestrial and don't rely heavily upon satellites. AT&T Wireless, for example, has only a handful of remote sites, including Mt. Baker, WA, and the Rocky Mountains in Colorado, that use satellite links, so a few interruptions are possible. Its systems haven't been affected by previous solar activities, said a company spokesman.

Even so, stranger things have happened. In the past solar cycle, for example, a geomagnetic storm caused Quebec's power lines to overload and blacked out the entire province.

Iridium's 88 satellites hover 421 miles above the Earth, while the geosynchronous earth-orbiting (GEO) satellites commonly used by paging companies orbit as much as 30,000 miles up and provide a much larger footprint. One GEO was knocked out by a solar storm two years ago. Launched beginning in 1997, the Iridium constellation was unaffected by previous solar flares, said Kathi Haas, Motorola NSS sector spokesman. Their design accommodates space weather.

Paging is perhaps most vulnerable, although like most paging carriers, PageNet said it doesn't anticipate any problems, and BellSouth Cellular has backup plans to restore its paging service immediately.

"If the satellite were to go out because of a solar flare, maybe our paging service might be interrupted because the interconnect goes down," said Keith Radousky, BellSouth Cellular director of engineering. Radousky said that by operating at 800MHz, cellular is protected from solar flares because even the most intense solar flare is believed to reach no higher up the spectrum than 450MHz.

If your Valentine understands the outstanding performance reported last quarter by those wireless-service providers in your portfolio, it probably would have been wiser yesterday to give the diamond necklace or the Rolex, not the leaf-blower.

* SBC reported record revenues of $12.9 billion, or a 6% increase over 4Q98. That equates to net earnings for 4Q99 of $3.1 billion, or 90 cents per share, compared with $1.5 billion, or 44 cents per share during 4Q98. SBC's net earnings also rose, climbing to $8.2 billion, or $2.36 per share, from $7.7 billion, or $2.23 per share, recorded a year earlier.

* BellSouth announced that 4Q99 revenue increased 26% from a year ago to 53 cents per share. BellSouth revenue increased 8.3% from $6.2 billion to $6.7 billion, and year-end revenue grew 9.1% to $25.2 billion.

* AT&T announced that its wireless services EBITDA increased 18.4% to $234 million in 4Q99, from $197 million in 4Q98; an operational EBITDA increase of 23.4% to $1.17 billion and a revenue increase for the year of 41.1% to $7.6 billion.

* Bell Atlantic's Wireless Group reported a huge 30.5% subscriber increase during 4Q99, which the company credited for a wireless revenue increase of 27.5% for the quarter to $1.6 billion. Proportionate operating income increased more than 50% to $293 million.

* GTE, which is set to merge with Bell Atlantic, credited increased sales of data and wireless for a 12% profit increase during 4Q99 from the previous year. Profits from operations climbed to $961 million, or 98 cents per share, from net income of $855 million, or 88 cents from 4Q98.