Reality-Based Expectations

When CTIA changed its name from Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association to Cellular Telecommunications & Internet Association, there was no doubt that the host of wireless industry events was responding to the industry’s new look. This change actually started two years ago at Wireless 1999. What has followed has been this industry’s vision closing in on reality.

In 1999, the buzz at the show was a generalized mix of convergence expectations. The millennium seemed too far away to think that big changes could happen so quickly. However, excitement was building, with the main questions being who, what, when and how radical of a revolution could this be?

Twelve months later at Wireless 2000, the vision was coming into focus. The Internet was viewed as the way to achieve the anywhere, anytime status in both voice and data. The industry looked to WAP and 3G to usher in this convergence revolution. Exhibitors and attendees were entranced by the sweet smells of increased ARPU and reduced churn that could be achieved with the promise of next-generation technology.

Even the keynotes reflected the dramatic reality shift. Put Bill Gates on your speaker list, and you’ll get a standing-room only audience. Steve Case and Jeff Bezos also were like rock stars — everyone wanted to get near them (even if it was just on a big screen TV).

Most attendees left New Orleans invigorated and inspired that the huge changes were within reach.

Once again, a lot has happened in a year. The enthusiasm might be tempered a bit by a questionable economic forecast, but the reality is here. Even though 3G has yet to turn on in the United States, the technology is available. Trials are under way. Spectrum auctions are just around the corner. Application possibilities abound. Although in short supply, handsets are in the pipelines.

Other parts of the world are proving their business cases with GPRS successes. NTT DoCoMo promises to lead the revolution with its 3G launch in May.

So what can you expect from Wireless 2001?

• The Mobile Internet. With 2.5G networks maturing in capabilities and capacity, look for optimization techniques that maximize low-bandwidth wireless connections to the Internet.

• Recreating i-mode. When DoCoMo President Keiji Tachikawa told the Wireless 2000 audience that customers don’t understand packets, but they do understand inexpensive access, you could almost hear the “Ah-ha’s.” Here was a carrier that figured out not only how to deliver the capability to its subscribers, but also how to make it affordable (translate: highly profitable). Now the race is on to recreate that same success story in the United States. Will it look like i-mode, or will it be something else altogether?

• Application Fever. There will be hundreds of new apps showcased. However, look for entertainment on wireless devices to drive new revenue streams. These include games, MP3s and streaming media. Also look for security software. The apps that appear to be stalled are purchasing from vending machines, Web browsing and pushed promotions where the user has no control.

Here’s hoping that your Wireless 2001 is a successful and fulfilling show.