Phone Sales Spike

Anecdotal evidence indicated short-term spikes in handset sales shortly after Sept. 11. However, some carriers and analysts aren't quite ready to raise their expectations for long-term sales.

“We don't know that it's lasting,” said Brenda Sky, Cahners In-Stat wireless handset group industry analyst. “In fact, there's pretty well a consensus in the industry that (the recent sales increase) is just a little blip and isn't going to hold up.”

Sky said Cahners In-Stat has raised its forecast for 2001 U.S. handset sales. But she called the increases insignificant in the global arena.

In contrast to Cahners In-Stat, Frost & Sullivan tracks changes in wireless subscriber numbers rather than handset sales. Like Cahners, Frost & Sullivan has increased it sales forecast.

“At this point, we have to limit it as a slight or moderate increase, because we don't have definite figures yet,” said Carles Ferreiro, Frost & Sullivan program leader, mobile communications. “It's pretty safe to say that there is growth in the market overall.”

Ferreiro attributes the increase in sales of wireless service to the kind of safety consciousness that typically accompanies consumers anticipating emergencies. He expects these consumers' wireless purchases to lean toward low-cost monthly plans and prepaid plans.

“Another thing to take into account is there are two trends in emergency-use subscribers,” Ferreiro said. “One is they have a tendency to either drop the service over time, or over time we see a shift toward more and more usage and an increased contract plan.”

Evidence of Transition?