Off to a Crawl

From zero to 1.8 million subscribers in the first year of a new wireless service would be OK for one carrier. But that is the total number of wireless-data subscribers in the United States today, according to a recent report from the Yankee Group.

Starting in September 1999 - when Sprint PCS first introduced its Wireless Web - U.S. wireless subscribers have been kicking the tires of data services. But few have gotten past the test-drive stage.

A Yankee Group report showed that as of 3Q00, AT&T Wireless claimed 270,000 wireless-data subscribers; Nextel, 200,000; Sprint PCS, 320,000; and Verizon, 300,000. Cingular just now is entering the market.

The carriers agreed, for the most part, with these numbers. AT&T Wireless said users of its PocketNet service now numbered 300,000. Sprint said that in addition to its 320,000 Wireless Web subscribers, 400,000 customers who don't subscribe to the service logged on at least once. Verizon said its figures showed 400,000 Mobile Web subscribers as of 3Q00.

The varying figures may stem from differing definitions of the words subscriber and user. For the purposes of its report, the Yankee Group defined a wireless-data subscriber as someone who used the service at least once per month. Carriers, on the other hand, may have defined subscribers as those who logged on once or twice.

"There's really no compelling reason to use it yet," said Knox Bricken, the analyst who compiled the report.

Barriers to wireless-data uptake include the millions of Americans with access to desktop PC connections, which are far more user-friendly than a wireless phone.

Other reasons for the take-it-or-leave it consumer attitude include high latency, walled gardens and the lack of a killer app.

Some sluggishness is to be expected with any new service. But compared to Japan and Europe, where wireless-data usage ramped up quickly, the United States still is looking for an ignition spark to start its wireless-Web engine.