How Not to Blow the Wireless Internet

What a difference a year can make. It used to be the California Gold Rush. Now, it's Stanley Kubrick's 2001: A Space Odyssey. That's the difference between how Hans Snook, Orange (www.uk.orange.net) CEO, characterized wireless 12 months ago vs. today. As a keynoter at the last two 3GSM conferences, Snook revealed wireless in 2000 as full of possibilities in the data realm. This year in Cannes, he suggested companies are weighing 3G's data and Internet possibilities and trying to determine which way(s) to go (www.gsmworldcongress.com).

In a futuristic video produced by Orange, Snook suggested 3G wireless will reach beyond simple communications into intelligent homes where voice recognition will rule everything. Snook predicts a future in which all wireless communications is intuitive, natural and all-encompassing.

Before getting to that future, however, carriers must navigate tricky 3G waters. According to Jim Healy, GSM Association (www.gsmworld.com) chairman, there is strength in numbers, and GSM carriers are headed in the right direction. He said more than 70% of the world's digital wireless population 457 million use GSM.

Healy also identified a number of GSM highlights.

Last year, the European market began upgrading its networks. The first GPRS networks were launched; today more than 30 networks are on the air. The first 3G-license auctions took place in 2000. During December 2000, subscribers sent more than 15 billion text messages.

As part of GSM's migration to 3G, WCDMA will be deployed in more than 85% of 3G networks. This is somewhat surprising as it appears that this migration may not leave any options for EDGE. 3GSM participants suggested that EDGE's time-to-market abilities may not provide enough of an edge over WCDMA. Because of that, many carriers may migrate straight to WCDMA. (See Figure 1.)

Healy suggested that the GSM movement is strong and gaining momentum. Brazil, Mexico and Argentina recently have selected GSM. AT&T Wireless, and possibly other U.S. TDMA carriers, are moving to EDGE or WCDMA.

Most of the informational 3GSM sessions focused more on strategy than on technology. Carriers and vendors obsessed on how not to blow the wireless Internet. Don Listwin, Openwave (www.openwave.com) president & CEO, accused the industry of mistakenly moving to higher-speed wireless networks prematurely. He advised carriers to get the subscribers to adopt the applications first so that they can pay for the networks.

Nikesh Arora, T-Motion (www.t-motion.com) CEO, concurred. In a separate panel, he said the industry has set itself up for a fall.

We set the bar too high, he said, reporting on a customer survey about what could improve the wireless Internet. We need to keep it simple.

Other panelists took the same tack.

We've gone mad for technology, but have forgotten the basics of what the users want, what they want to pay for and how we deliver that, said Val Rahmani, IBM EMEA vice president, communications sector (www.ibm.com).

Massimo Miglioulo, Cisco Systems (www.cisco.com) worldwide mobile vice president, called for a collective risk by carriers and vendors alike to focus on customers and educate users about how it's not the Internet.

Openwave's Listwin said 2001 is the mobile Internet's turning point year.

It could be a year that we stall, or it could be the year where users really embrace the applications.

For additional 3GSM coverage, check out wirelessreview.com and its VOC partner telecomclick.com .