M-Commerce? Maybe

M-commerce yaws. That's OK. Just give me a reason or two.

What happens when your collective wireless vision doesn't match what you actually see in the world around you? Usually lots of teeth gnashing and questions about viability and reality. That's the case with m-commerce.

The theory goes like this: Wireless voice is a huge success. People want to wirelessly enable more of their lives. The vision for wireless voice and data has extended farther and farther, at least until it stubbed its toe on the m-commerce model. It's right there for the wireless world to embrace and ride to new highs. So what's the problem? Will m-commerce end up following the annual wireless-data proclamation for success that was ballyhooed consistently for 15 years running? Or will it really take off?

More questions than answers abound. But this is where the consultants make their money. Where there is gnashing of teeth, there is a consultant to apply salve on the open wound: "Easy, easy. It'll be all right. M-commerce is coming, don't you worry." Or, "Relax and take a deep breath. It's still out there. It hasn't taken off because ..." and the consultant considerately lists several quantifiable reasons. People love very simple reasons to blame for inactivity.

Today, I received my first consultant-research piece suggesting why m-commerce seemed to be running hard but not going anywhere. It came complete with six reasons to explain the stall. Here are an eMarketer analyst's reasons with my editorial asides and arguments for your consideration:

- Consumers remain unconvinced about the wireless Web. No kidding? Wireless-service providers are barely crawling when it comes to the wireless Web. How can they be expected to run on their first iteration? EMarketer estimates that only 9% of Web-ready devices currently access the Internet. Consumers aren't using the wireless Web for several reasons: They don't get it, they don't like it, and/or it doesn't work.

- Retail e-commerce is still in its infancy. True. For the most part, consumers are leery of the true security and privacy that can be found online. If you ever have had your wallet stolen, you know the recurring nightmares. Consumers imagine Internet purchasing as akin to laying your wallet open for the entire world to use as it sees fit. Until they feel comfortable, and ultimately confident, that their credit cards won't be hacked, and that they won't be added to every Internet marketers' list, retail commerce will remain slow to grow.

- Wireless-Internet content is limited. When WAP - or whatever serves the wireless-Internet market - emerges, people will be doing more than just checking e-mails, stock quotes and the weather. Again the crawl/walk/run theory applies.

- The U.S. mobile-payment structure complicates m-commerce marketing. Do you think anyone in the treasury or banking industry willingly will advocate a change in money and its presentation and handling? No way. You think retail commerce has been slow to growth? The only thing slower will be the banking industry embracing an electronic wallet.

- The U.S. wireless-telecommunications industry is lagging behind the technology. Let me rephrase this for the consultant. The U.S. wireless-telecommunications industry has had to build from the ground up and keep on building as different technologies emerged - so it seems as though it's lagging, when in fact it has been inventing the wheel at virtually every turn.

- The United States has poor wireless coverage. I totally disagree with this one. Inconsistent, maybe. But definitely not poor. Again, when you're creating the wheel, you'll have peaks and valleys that appear as inconsistent. But let's remember that before 1983, every phone was plugged into a wall somewhere.

Thank goodness for these six reasons and for the others that will allow us to sleep at night. It does offer some comfort for the wireless visionaries in all of us who see m-commerce as a simpler way of life. As far as m-commerce is concerned, I think it will hit in time. However, my theory for the wait is this: It's just too soon. People just aren't ready to replace the touchy-feely approach to acquisition with the beauty viewed on a 4-color flat screen. But when they are ready, it will be big. Until then, we'll cut our teeth and console ourselves with achieving some rather respectable numbers. Datamoni-tor predicts that U.S. m-commerce will increase more than thirteenfold, from $90 million today to $1.2 billion by 2003. Not bad for a crawling start.