On Your Marks

Now that AT&T Wireless has launched its GPRS service in Seattle (www.attws.com), the United States has its first 2.5G service. The crowd roars. Banners, balloons and fanfare.

Like so many other competitive initiatives, the first in any race gains the big headlines. Unlike other races, however, this one provides a mere toehold in pursuing, and possibly securing, the ultimate prize.

AT&T Wireless said its 2.5G network can deliver data at speeds ranging from 30kb/s to 40kb/s on the downlink to 40kb/s to 50kb/s on the uplink. The company plans to deploy GPRS in 40% of its markets this year and complete its coverage by the end of 2002.

Other key carriers such as Sprint PCS (www.sprintpcs.com) and Verizon Wireless (www.verizonwireless.com) also are putting final touches on their own CDMA 1XRTT plans and are not far behind. They soon will launch their “first” markets with, no doubt, different speed attributes and differentials.

Of course, we're all waiting and watching Cingular (www.cingular.com). It's evaluating and testing its course for future technologies. Soon, it will announce its commitment to the GSM or CDMA course to serve all of its markets. That decision alone will change the dynamic of the race.

Even NextWave (www.nextwave.com), carrier wannabe, plans to begin building its own CDMA data network. It's unclear whether it must wait until there's a decision regarding the FCC's (www.fcc.gov) appeal to the Supreme Court to break ground on its build-out. Whether it begins now or when it can get untangled from its legal quagmire, its plan calls for 95-market coverage by the end of 2002.

In this instance, being first doesn't mean much. Although a handful of Seattle residents may get a taste of always-on, faster data service, let's be realistic about the significance. Seattle is merely the test lab for GPRS service. Everyone knows data speeds will appear faster on a lightly loaded system. What happens to those speeds when the system begins servicing heavier loads and more subscribers? And what happens when that links to other cities?

There are other conspiring factors. As the Gartner Group points out (www.gartner.com), the real race begins when subscribers have a selection of terminals, when national service is offered and when pricing has been determined and stabilized. Of course, that can't and won't happen until more than one carrier is offering nationwide service, and those competitors are building up significant subscriber bases.

The next leg of the race comes in the delivery of intelligent roaming options. One carrier's data services will be available only in those markets that it has turned on. In other unserved markets, what will carriers do to make for seamless wireless data delivery? Will 2.5G services further splinter subscribers, forcing them to choose between TDMA/GSM and CDMA networks?

Although the racetrack is marked clearly in the United States, it doesn't even end with domination in this country. The final leg of the race will begin when international coverage becomes defined with one phone providing voice and data service no matter where the subscriber is located.

Yes, AT&T Wireless may have been first to launch 2.5G service, but there are so many more important milestones that will determine what the face of wireless-data service will look like and who the ultimate winner will be. Along the way, there will be numerous opportunities to dominate as well as, yes, trip up.

In the case of 2.5G and ultimately 3G, the race may not go to the fastest, the most financially sound or even the strongest, but the steadiest and the smartest.

On your marks … get set … go.