Location Vendors Looking Beyond Carriers

Despite the October 2000 deadline for choosing an E-911 Phase II solution, virtually no carriers have formally committed to a handset- or network-based solution. That indecision is prompting E-911 vendors to look beyond carriers for markets for their solutions.

For example, although sister company Omnipoint Communications has expressed interest in network-based solutions, it hasn't told Omnipoint Technologies what solution it plans to use for Phase II.

"It makes it tough because we don't know exactly what technology to build, which is a problem for all vendors," said John Pottle, director of PCS-infrastructure products at Omnipoint Technologies, which will offer a time-of-arrival solution by late 2000 and also is working on enhanced-observed-time-difference and assisted-GPS solutions. "Operators are going to need some sort of hybrid solution down the road. So we're looking at ways that these different location solutions can work together and complement each other."

"It's very daunting to try to forecast what's going to happen," said Stephen Beckert, Strategis Group senior consultant.

The Strategis Group predicts wireless location will be a $3.9-billion industry by the end of 2004, with emergency roadside assistance accounting for nearly three-fourths of that figure. Another analyst, Driscoll-Wolfe, says 70% of consumers have interest in location services and are willing to pay as much as $2.50 per month.

Some location vendors are hedging their bets by developing both network and GPS solutions. Most analysts expect carriers to use GPS-based handset solutions in rural areas and network-based solutions in urban areas, where cell-site density is higher. (Rural Cellular Corporation, however, has developed a network-based solution.)

Many vendors also hope to sell solutions to everyone from call centers to state highway departments. U.S. Wireless' solution includes commercial location services such as emergency roadside assistance, location-sensitive billing and fleet management. It also takes a service-bureau approach that aims to reduce how much carriers will have to spend to meet the mandate. "We decided to bring all the efficiencies to carriers by building one independent network infrastructure so carriers don't have to duplicate $400 or $500 million networks across the United States," said Randy Miller, U.S. Wireless executive vice president.

Beckert said U.S. Wireless' strategy is viable but risky.

"It's unclear how much revenue can be generated in any one carrier's area and also what proportion of carriers are going to go with any one network or deploy handset-based technologies," he said.

IDC, whose niche is serving as a middleman between handset manufacturers and GPS manufacturers, remains optimistic.

"Expect to start seeing some (IDC) agreements within the next several months with some major players in the entire industry, from handset manufacturers to call centers and all places in between," said Andy Rimkus, IDC vice president.