Little Voice

Internet and e-mail content are becoming as important as voice communications. Just as corporate voice mail helped drive the need for cellular phones in the 1980s, access to e-mail and other information will drive the need for the next generation of wireless phones: mobile terminals.

Today's handsets are ill-equipped to access all but the most bare-bone content, such as e-mail. WAP-enabled phones attempt to provide more. They simplify access by specially formatting Internet content suitable for limited displays and network bandwidth. Some phones have predictive key-entry systems, such as Tegic's T9, which limit the number of keystrokes by offering to complete each word based on the first few letters entered.

Based on previews of developing technologies, customer expectations and logical extensions of trends, here is my speculation of what will drive information access in the next two to five years.

ONE SIZE FITS ALL? Mobile terminals fall into four categories:

* Voice-only phones. These may have other capabilities, but they are used mainly for voice communications.

* WAP-enabled voice phones. With no storage or built-in information applications, these phones are what everyone predicts will launch the wireless Internet.

* Feature phones. In addition to voice capabilities, these phones have on-board applications, voice recognition and larger screens. They are about the size of most standard wireless handsets. Examples: the Nokia 7100 series and the NeoPoint 1000 and 1600.

* Smart phones. These phones are portable computers integrated with voice-and-data-capable transceivers.

No one knows which type of phone will sell well in the future. Some industry watchers think that users will opt for a single device that does it all. Others argue that users will carry several disparate devices that connect to access data.

PHONE PLUS In 2000, choices will abound: voice phones with limited data, such as short message service; voice phones combined with 2-way pagers, providing a combination of services that can compete with Nextel's 2-way radios; WAP phones, some with predictive input; feature phones, some tied to specific back-end services and others that leave the points of access up to the customer; and smart phones.

Over the next 12 to 24 months, look for major advances in predictive input from companies such as Tegic and Motorola, whose software also will work with a pen. Pen-input handsets will combine Palm Computing's operating system with a phone, and they'll have larger screens.

We'll also see 2-way pagers with larger screens and perhaps even a Palm-type device with a small keyboard at the bottom to replace pen input. A phone with a keyboard instead of a keypad also is possible. Whatever the approach, the phone portion is currently the smallest and least expensive element.

THE KILLER APP Voice is and will remain the most important form of information input and output. Many subscribers will be content to use voice-only phones to access e-mail, traffic, stock tickers and even corporate data.

Two developments will bring voice control to mobile terminals sooner rather than later. Voice recognition is one. The computer and wireless industries acceptance of the Bluetooth technology is a driving force for voice control. Bluetooth allows users with hands-free kits to control their phones using voice. It also enables computers and phones to communicate directly with one another, so they won't have to use the wireless network, and they won't have to be cabled together or integrated into a single device.

Voice control becomes more meaningful when there is a wireless speaker/microphone that allows hands-free use of the phone. When someone speaks into a Bluetooth device, the user can make the phone dial a number. The computing power required to take us beyond this type of rudimentary voice control will reside in the network.

A peek into this future already is available through General Magic's Portico and MyTalk services, which require only voice to read and reply to e-mail and to check calendars and stock prices. These services aren't perfect, but they are robust enough to suit the needs of thousands of subscribers.

Voice control of Internet content is next. Motorola's VoxML initiative, supported by many other companies, uses voice to access virtually any information on the Internet. A lot of work remains to improve speech recognition, but progress is being made, and more products are entering the market every day.

One of the more interesting voice-controlled products is Fujitsu Ten's Eclipse car stereo, which includes a built-in wireless phone. You can ask it to provide directions, change stations or place a call. Microsoft is developing a similar device.

CONFUSION AHEAD? In the near future, keypads, keyboards, pen devices and voice will provide better ways to access e-mail and other data. Both the wireless and computing industries must work closely together to provide customers with different access types -- and a positive experience no matter which they choose.

Unfortunately, all of these technology choices may confuse potential customers and lead them to select none of the above. It's incumbent on our industries to apply these new technologies in ways that will both bring value to customers and provide compelling reasons for them to buy a mobile terminal rather than a plain-vanilla voice phone.