The End of Plug & Pray

When some of telecommunications' and technology's biggest players needed inspiration for their joint R&D project, they looked to the past instead of the future. Around A.D. 960, they found their man, Harald Bluetooth, who united the Danish people into a nation and converted them to Christianity. Whether Bluetooth, the technology platform, will claim similar success for uniting the wireless and computer industries remains to be seen.

The platform's developers -- Ericsson, IBM, Intel, Nokia and Toshiba -- describe Bluetooth as "a global specification for wireless connectivity" that would allow portable devices such as laptop computers to communicate with one another without cables. For example, a Bluetooth-compatible laptop would receive an e-mail via a wireless connection to a LAN. The laptop then would contact the user's wireless phone, where the e-mail could be read on the display.

What Bluetooth means for wireless data is at best as sketchy as the details of the platform itself. On one hand, Bluetooth could facilitate widespread use of wireless phones to receive e-mail quickly and conveniently. Indeed, its developers expect the platform to "grow the market for personal mobile devices and increase airtime usage for mobile data transfer." On the other, it could mark the closing of the wireless industry's window of opportunity to become the medium of choice for e-mail on the go.

FRIEND OR FOE? Bluetooth would operate around 2.45GHz, which limits its range to about 30 feet. That suggests it is intended more as a short-range connection than a direct competitor to wireless.

"It's basically an alternative to infrared," said Roberta Wiggins, a Yankee Group analyst. "We're always looking for ways to make simpler, more convenient ways to do wireless data. It's one step in that direction."

By providing users with a convenient connection to LANs and the Internet, Bluetooth actually could help wireless because it would make checking e-mail as simple as making a phone call.

Although she cautioned that it is too soon to tell, Wiggins said, "I think it'll contribute toward making data on phones more practical."

What role might e-mail play in the future of wireless? One indicator is how instrumental e-mail was in the rapid transformation of the computer from a business tool into a mainstream communications medium. Asking whether e-mail could expand wireless data beyond niche applications such as automated utility monitoring raises another question: What is the market for wireless data?

"Right now, there ought to be a huge demand for it," said Konstantin Zsigo, Zsigo Wireless Data Consultants president.

Currently, data accounts for about 3% of all wireless traffic, whereas in landline it is upward of 50%.

"Clearly, it's an under-served market in wireless," Zsigo said. "So there ought to be a demand. But the truth is, there isn't yet."

That's surprising, considering society's love affair with e-mail and its need to keep in touch while on the go. Sixty-one percent of 440 e-mail users polled earlier this year by the Consumer Electronic Manufacturers Association said they check their e-mail every day. What wireless can offer those users is the ability to check their e-mail nearly anywhere and without a computer. Bluetooth doesn't appear to be a threat to that ability because its range is limited to 30 feet, and widespread implementation is several years off, which could be a window of opportunity for wireless to position itself as a reliable, convenient medium for e-mail.

For that to happen, carriers have to be convinced that upgrading their networks to handle e-mail and other data is a good investment. That could prove a hard sell.

"Almost no wireless carrier is really banking on making money in wireless data anytime soon," Zsigo said.

Those that are offering data services such as e-mail often do so because of increasing competition. E-mail can serve as a loss leader to attract desirable demographics, such as business travelers, and as a way for carriers to differentiate themselves.

Bell Atlantic Mobile is one carrier that is bullish on data, but Bill Davidson, vice president of wireless-data sales, cautioned that success means targeting specific demographics.

"I think where we get into trouble with ourselves is we try to say that e-mail is this huge, horizontal market, and anybody off the street should want to buy it," he said. "I don't think that's the case. For now, it's a targeted approach that you have take."

Manufacturers also appear convinced there is a future in wireless data.

"We see Bluetooth as a important milestone in the development of those services, and obviously e-mail would be one of those services," said Megan Matthews, Nokia spokeswoman.

E-mail will play an important role in Nokia's products, Matthews said, but she wouldn't disclose what form those applications might take. The company already has a Cellular Data Card, which enables PCs to do double duty as wireless phones, but it currently is not available in United States.

If there is one certainty, it is that computers are steadily encroaching on wireless' ability to provide convenient, mobile access to e-mail. Nokia's Cellular Data Card is one example, and Bell Atlantic Mobile's Minstrel modem allows the PalmPilot, from Bluetooth backer 3Com, to use CDPD to send e-mail. It is clear that computers will play a large role in the future of wireless data.

As Joe Doria, IBM's worldwide marketing manager for ThinkPad mobile, put it, "Connecting in a simple way, and communications in general, are very important to our customers."

Some think the computer industry could siphon off wireless-data users entirely.

"It's very likely that the computer industry will take this away from wireless," Zsigo said. "It's been too long. The carriers have been too slow to adapt their business processes to succeed in this, and the computer industry will probably take this over, which is ultimately not in the best interests of the wireless industry."

So is there anything wireless can do?

"No. It's over," Zsigo said. "The die is cast. Just like the telephone companies don't sell PCs anymore, I think we'll look back and say that the telephone companies aren't selling wireless PCs."

USE IT OR LOSE IT One way Bluetooth could benefit wireless is by introducing the technology to more people.

"Bluetooth is a significant development if all it does is raise the confidence level of corporate information-technology staffs in wireless communications, even if it just starts with wireless LANs," said Mark Desautels, CTIA wireless-data forum executive director. "What this is going to help develop is ubiquity for mobile computing."

Bell Atlantic Mobile's Davidson agreed.

"I think it's another demonstration that the whole marketplace is going to get to use wireless data because we're already looking at ways to make it more convenient," he said. "I look at it as a very complementary offering."

If convergence and interoperability are the inevitable future of telecommunications, then Bluetooth might provide wireless with a way to capitalize on the data market. Palmtops and PDAs, for example, have quickly spoiled business travelers, who now look at laptops as millstones. Bell Atlantic Mobile's Minstrel CDPD modem for the PalmPilot is one example of how a carrier can prevent losing data traffic to other industries."I just thin k it gives the consumers more flexibility in the manner that they want to view that e-mail," said Davidson, who speculated that the combination of more wireless-data cards, the palmtop boom and the right price point "could just explode the market."

Perhaps Maggie Rohr, Bell Atlantic corporate communications staff director put it best: "It's all our network, whether they do it through their cell phone, palm-top or laptop. It's still usage on our network, and we still make a profit. So I don't think it matters to us what the customer prefers as long as we offer them an option."

Who? The five founding members of the R&D group developing Bluetooth are Ericsson, IBM, Intel, Nokia and Toshiba. Dell, Lucent, Motorola and 3Com also have signed on, and others can join to share technology on a royalty-free basis.

What? A technology platform, code-named Bluetooth, that would facilitate short-range wireless communications between a variety of mobile devices, including phones, PDAs and laptops. An official product name has not been decided.

How? Low-power wireless around 2.45GHz. Range is limited to about 30 feet.

When? Bluetooth-compatible products could go on the market as soon as third-quarter 1999.

Where? The project's web site is at www.bluetooth.com.

Why? To provide a convenient and relatively cheap way for users to connect a wide range of devices without cables.