Coming to America?

A day seldom goes by that someone doesn't ask, “When are we going to see those nifty services that the wireless world has promised?”

Well, the answer is simple … they'll get those great new services when the market is ready.

But before that day comes, the industry must address and surmount a number of hurdles. The task of building 3G wireless networks in the United States is complicated for vendors, carriers and application developers. They face spectrum caps, non-compatible technologies, support for legacy systems and a marketplace populated by customers who are understandably confused and wary.

Despite those difficulties, the good news is that 3G is real, and, in fact, 3G already is taking shape in America.

You just have to know where to look. Consider services such as AT&T's PocketNet (www.attws.com) and Sprint's (www.sprintpcs.com) Wireless Web. Although these ventures haven't achieved economic success, they've shown American consumers that they can use their wireless devices for purposes other than annoying other folks in a restaurant.

Although text messaging may be a novelty in the United States, it's old hat in much of Europe. A copy of a sign from a Finnish junior high school reads “No SMS During Class.” It's a clear message for U.S. carriers: American consumers are just starting to scratch the surface with this new wave of 3G services.

The market also is beginning to show signs of the crucial convergence that will make 3G possible. Major TDMA carriers have announced they are going the route of GSM with GPRS to EDGE and then to WCDMA. This is a significant step toward the ultimate unity of wireless networks. A lot of folks are frustrated by the fact that because some carriers use GSM while others use TDMA, they can't easily send an SMS from one network to another. Thanks to convergence, that problem soon will be solved.

Some also have asked whether we'll really see WCDMA in America. The simple answer is yes. In fact, work is now under way, and equipment is being delivered that will facilitate the launch of WCDMA in the U.S. marketplace. The increase in overall capacity and the opportunity to move toward an all-IP infrastructure make WCDMA an appealing venture. The generally held view is that GPRS will be implemented systemwide, followed by EDGE deployments in urban areas where more capacity is needed.

As more 3G applications are launched, EDGE will be extended in the networks. WCDMA also will start in the urban areas and be extended throughout the networks as needed. It should be noted that legacy systems will be supported throughout this 3G evolution. Just as equipment manufacturers support millions of analog customers today, leading manufacturers will continue to support GPRS for years to come.

Some wonder how WCDMA will fit into today's low-spectrum markets. Of course, carriers in markets with available spectrum will have an easier time introducing WCDMA. The challenge for carriers is how best to manage the movement of customers from one technology to another. In reality, this is as much a marketing challenge as a technology problem. Capacity is the issue. How can a carrier take spectrum from a market that already has a full network?

When you get right down to it, 3G is more about the applications than any particular technology.

When new services are launched, the public won't care if they are delivered by GPRS, EDGE or WCDMA. Subscribers just want to know if it works, and if they can use it when, where and how they want. Third generation gives carriers the capacity and the ability to deliver those applications. It's not just a new technology, 3G is a whole new way of doing business. That's why carriers that move aggressively now to embrace this new paradigm will be way ahead of the “Let's wait to see how it works” bunch.

Is 3G coming to America? Yes, and for carriers with an eye on the wireless future, it's already here.

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Walters is with Nokia Networks (www.nokia.com).