Clarity

Close calls have a way of changing perspectives. We've all experienced a moment when our lives have flashed in front of our eyes. Following those experiences, if the situation was dire enough, it usually resulted in significant life changes.

I've experienced it, and I've seen friends experience it. However, I've never seen it happen to a collective body, as in the wireless industry. I believe the events of Sept. 11 have made a huge life-altering impression on the wireless industry. And in that impression is a huge lesson.

Beginning about six months ago, unrest surrounded the wireless industry like an angry mob. Activist groups and the consumer media were beginning to vent their collectively charged emotions; you could feel the tension building. Stories increasingly reflected an angry spirit: “America's mobile phone industry is in a mess.” “The cellular phone industry bleeds red ink and provides crummy call quality.” “How are the cellular carriers ever going to run a decent business with so many customers irate?”

Also, plenty of bitter legislative discussion was voiced. Topping the list were proposed bans on cellular phone use in moving vehicles and demands for carrier-quality accountability.

Meanwhile, telecom vendor companies were taking a blood bath, and onlookers were wondering why the carriers weren't feeling more pain.

All around, it was shaping up into an ugly little period in the industry's history. However, beginning with that tragic September day, the mood has changed. Perhaps it is because wireless technology came to the rescue in countless ways during and following the tragedy. Maybe carriers realized the networks they built were solid, withstanding unpredictable usage surges. Yes, ARPU may be declining, but this service is not.

Recently, the angry media and lobbying groups have backed off. The no-talking-while-driving advocacy programs have retreated. The economic assaults don't seem as murderous.

Further, that unrelenting, chaotic drive within the wireless industry to get to 3G at any and all costs has abated.

Why? When your perspective changes, you usually become far more attuned to what is really important. In the process, you dismiss those things that have been artificially propped up as having significance.

The question with 3G always was, why exactly do we want/need to get from point A to point B right now? The answers consistently were varied and more than a little fuzzy. Capacity. Features. Speed. Multimedia. Uh, I don't know.

Recently, carriers seem to have gained clarity. Yes, there's no question that 3G is in their futures. However, 2.5G is the current plausible solution. It can expand capacity, and it can deliver some services. Both of those options within 2.5G will provide them with breathing room until they figure out exactly why they want to get to 3G's point B.

The clarity also seems to extend to spectrum. Before Sept. 11, the urgency to acquire it revealed an unyielding demand by all participants. From the wireless perspective, it felt as though everyone was against us — the Department of Defense (DoD), Instructional Television Fixed Service (ITFS), broadcast TV and cable — and they were tightening their grips on their spectrum allocations and digging in for protracted fights.

However, today, as the DoD pushes the possibility out a decade, ITFS licensees are off the hook, and the broadcast entities still control the clock, I don't sense the same industry desperation. The reaction is more focused: Lifting the spectrum cap may ease things for a while, and that's OK.

E-911 has become crystal clear as well. Earlier this summer, it appeared as though the delivery of location services was going to get pushed into the discard pile of agenda items. However, today, carriers see the real value of pursuing that point B. With this renewed clarity, I guarantee you that E-911 will get on the agenda; the deadlines will be met, and service will be delivered.

In countless ways, September 2001 was an especially trying month. However, that time has matured the wireless industry and crystallized for it an elusive concept: “If you can see it, you can be it.”

This month, NTT DoCoMo launched its 3G service. Now that the first 3G service has been unleashed upon the world, the questions likely will begin to swirl about when it will be available in the United States. Although those queries may surface, I suspect the industry is just as likely to respond with a collective, “Just not seeing it yet.”

Comments? Write to rwickham@primediabusiness.com.