CDPD's Future

CDPD is a sensitive topic for many people. Some have been engaged actively in building the CDPD infrastructure, creating terminal devices and selling CDPD solutions since 1994. For those people, CDPD continues to inch along toward commercial success.

There are others on the sidelines -- cellular carriers that have not deployed CDPD, carriers that have competing networks and general "naysayers" who like to point to the technology's lack of commercial success.

There is not much middle ground with CDPD. Basically, you're either on the inside of the community, or you are outside of it. Few industry participants claim to be impartial on the subject, and everyone has an opinion. Here's a shot at going down the middle.

Few carriers would consider CDPD a financial success. Certain markets have major CDPD subscribers that have signed multiyear contracts, but, on the whole, carriers have spent more on infrastructure and running the business than they'd care to admit.

Nationwide CDPD coverage is not likely, which has been a blow to many, but you can't count CDPD out. Surprises continue to happen. For example, AT&T Wireless recently announced plans to deploy CDPD in Los Angeles, which certainly gives CDPD a shot in the arm. Also, several Latin American carriers have deployed CDPD, encouraging hardware manufacturers about making significant sales to those regions.

HINDSIGHT IS 20/20Although focusing on the past usually is counter-productive, it is difficult not to wonder what the CDPD business could have been like. There was a time when carriers actually said, "We have to keep these CDPD prices up because we don't want to overload our networks. We can't handle it." Smart move. How many CDPD units would be out on the market today if the pricing had been aimed at getting the home Internet browsing market? Instead of 50 cents/kbyte (where the business started in 1994), the rate should have been 50 dollars/month for 5Mb of data, and 10 dollars/Mb thereafter.

Carriers have begun to settle into those types of rate plans today, but it could be a case of too little, too late. The consumer frenzy just isn't there yet.

However, if it were 1997 and the title of this article was, "The Future of RAM Mobile Data," much the same thing could be said. Certainly, it was not a huge commercial success: The customers were vertical, people were giving seminars on "what went wrong and why," and price points were too high. But look at the company now. With the advent of a single product, the RIM Inter*ctive pager, RAM Mobile Data (now BellSouth Wireless Data) has become a phenomenon. RIM pagers are everywhere. Sales are up, and few doubt that BellSouth will continue to make a huge commercial success of its network. This is a big switch from what might have been predicted a couple of years ago.

Perhaps CDPD is just a killer product away as well. For example, it is conceivable that CDPD smart phones could navigate web sites and control e-mail via a service like Wireless- Knowledge's Revolv, giving it the boost it needs. The phone would have to look and act like every other wireless phone in terms of form factor, weight and battery life. The RIM pager has taught that lesson well. It looks and feels like a pager, not a "convergence" device that subscribers have to get used to.

SUCCESSFUL APPSThe big story so far in CDPD has been in the public-safety arena, which probably can claim more than a third of the CDPD sales made to date. Public-safety officers love the technology because it allows them to be more effective without a lot of effort. CDPD always has been a huge technical success. Customers rarely complain about network performance and reliability.

Telemetry is another market that is appropriate for CDPD. The telemetry market, particularly for the gas, electric and water utilities, remains virtually untapped with only 5 percent of meters fitted for automatic reads. The electric utility market also has a complex distribution automation requirement for semi-real-time command and control, often handled today by expensive private radio SCADA systems. Energy deregulation requires that meters be read more quickly and more often. If the CDPD market can produce a 100 dollar radio that reads meters for about 2 dollars/month, it could net several million activations with guaranteed 10- to 15-year contracts.

NATIONAL FOOTPRINT DOUBTFULWhat does the future hold for CDPD? The answer depends on how several key events unfold in the near future. It's difficult to predict that CDPD ever will have a true national footprint. This doesn't mean the subscriber experience couldn't appear national through some hybrid radio product (analog cellular circuit switching or short message service), but such an ersatz national footprint still is unlikely.

Although the pricing still could be lower, it appears the cellular carriers realize this and are being as aggressive as they believe they can be. The ultimate test of price elasticity would be to drop the price to 0 dollars. However, even taking such drastic measures wouldn't attract an infinite number of subscribers. It's safe to say that radical pricing changes probably wouldn't affect the business much at this point.

POWER PLAYThe wildcard here is the device card. CDPD needs a killer product that only requires a regional footprint for success. That's a tall order, but many savvy manufacturers exist that undoubtedly are capable of producing if they feel it's worth the research and development investment. However, the window of opportunity to create that killer consumer device is shrinking rapidly.

All of these ideas fall onto fewer and fewer people's shoulders as the cellular players continue to reduce their "data sales forces," choosing instead to focus on the lucrative voice business. CDPD may end up being remembered as a "great technology that missed its chance."

If CDPD never becomes the financial success it could have been, it at least can serve as a roadmap for the deployment of future technologies.

Police in East Hanover, NJ, now can access mug-shot photos via Bell Atlantic Mobile's AirBridge wireless data network. Police officers can type a suspect's physical characteristics into their laptops and in about one minute receive a series of photos of the top 10 persons on file fitting the description. The department has been using the network to access text information from the Department of Motor Vehicles, municipal court listings and state and federal criminal records. The feature was added to enhance both officer and community safety.