Global mobile subs pass 2.5 billion

One year after surpassing 2 billion global subscribers, the wireless industry is halfway to adding its next billion. Ovum and the GSM Association are estimating that today, the number of global cellular connections will climb to more than 2.5 billion.

Over the last four quarters, global carriers added 484 million cellular connections, 41% coming from the Asia-Pacific region. And more than half of those gains are from two countries--India and China accounted for one quarter of all new subscriber adds, each adding close to 5 million new subscribers per month, said Wireless Intelligence, a joint venture between Ovum and the GSMA.

Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia also made the top 10 for overall volume of new connections. No Western European country made that list, though. as their markets have matured, but the U.S.—with some room to grow—did make the cut. Russia, Ukraine, Brazil and Nigeria rounded out the remainder of the top 10.

The shift in growth from the developed to the developing world was expected this year as the prime markets in Western Europe and East Asia have neared 100% penetration. Even the U.S., with close to 70% penetration, is expected to slow down its rapid growth in the next year, though several of the top carriers have managed to keep up their 1 million plus quarterly net add rates. The majority of the next 500 million is expect to come from areas like Latin America, South Asia, China, Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

But that growth won’t necessarily bring the higher-range ARPUs the industry is used to in the west. In many markets like India, average monthly bills are coming in at less than $10 a month, adjusted toward the far lower relative income levels in those countries.

Wireless Intelligence estimated another 16 months will bring in the half-billion subscribers needed to reach 3 billion—or almost half the world’s population.

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