Cox will revive FMC (if it knows what's good for it)

We thought it might be Google, but it now looks like the newest mobile operator to emerge in the U.S. will be Cox Communications. In this age of consolidation, it's almost shocking to imagine a new wireless operator starting from scratch. Aside from the expense of acquiring spectrum, building a network and developing a sizable operations infrastructure, Cox will be entering what is already a highly saturated market.

So with fewer and fewer "new" customers to go after in a market where monumental scale is the only way to compete, why would an operator choose to launch a new regional network, starting from subscriber 1? Becoming just another mobile voice provider in this market is pointless. But I suspect Cox has a few tricks up its sleeves, and those tricks probably involve multiservice bundles and fixed/mobile convergence (FMC).

FMC and the bundle are fairly tired concepts, but let's face it, no operator has really tried to combine the two into an effective service. Take the bundles that AT&T and Verizon offer or the wireless packages the cable operators offered under the now-defunct Pivot. They were basically disparate wireless and wireline services you could pay for on a single bill. There may be a handful of Americans whose time is so valuable that eliminating a separate wireless bill is worthwhile, and there may be more than a handful that like the nominal discounts that come with service bundling, but as a "service," bundling is hardly compelling.

But if an operator were to actually link the disparate elements in those bundles together in any meaningful way, then they could have something very compelling. Single number home and wireless service and a unified voicemail box would be one such attractive service. If not immediately possible, then femtocell or Wi-Fi FMC that allows customers to piggyback their wireless calls over Cox's home phone voice-over-IP (VoIP) service would be a good alternative. Why not integrate the mobile phone into the home network so calls, contacts and voicemail can be managed from the TV screen or from a home communications appliance such as the Samsung HomeManager AT&T just launched. Or if you want to get basic, why not implement one of the numerous applications out there that allow customers to configure their digital video recorders from the phone.

Carriers have been talking about these kinds of integrated applications for years, but so far they've failed to deliver them (or have delivered them in half measures). Cox could be the first to take the plunge since it frankly doesn't have anything to lose. With zero wireless customers, Cox must differentiate itself in a big way, unlike AT&T, which has more than 150 million wireless customers to lean upon. Cox also doesn't have a legacy wireline voice business to prop up. Cox's home phone service travels through the same broadband pipe as any other converged service it would offer — it's all VoIP traffic whether it's coming from the mobile phone or the cordless.

I don't expect Cox to launch a seamlessly integrated quadruple-play convergence platform from day 1, but I expect it will try to at least do something innovative. If it doesn't — if it just tries to be another mobile voice operator — than it will most certainly fail.

E-mail me at kfitchard@telephonyonline.com.