Worldnet founder: Copper landlines gone by 2013

The copper “last mile” line to the house won’t exist in six years, according to Tom Evslin.

The co-founder of Internet service provider AT&T Worldnet and voice-over-IP wholesaler ITXC, Evslin made the prediction this month in his Web log, “Fractals of Change.”

“By 2012 [there will be] no more reason to use our landlines--so we won’t,” Evslin wrote. “I don’t think the copper plant will last past 2012. The problem is the cost of maintaining and operating it when it has very few subscribers. Obviously [it’s] a huge problem for AT&T and Verizon. And an important social issue as well.”

Evslin pointed to a study showing the percentage of homes with landline phones declining from about 96% to 94% between 1998 and 2003 while cell phone penetration jumped from 36% to 63%. Those trends have probably accelerated since then, he argued.

By 2012, copper landlines will have been replaced by WiFi-enabled mobile phone services like the one T-Mobile will roll out nationwide this summer, Evslin wrote. Such services will highlight the superiority of mobile phones over land lines in consumers’ minds: mobile phones are more capable (with built-in cameras, directories and address books, etc.) and less expensive. VoIP phones make mobile service even cheaper since calls made over a home WiFi network are the same price regardless of the minutes of use. And home WiFi networks also ensure better call quality than consumers have grown to expect from mobile phones.