No tough times for telecom?

Housing starts are down, consumer confidence is down sharply, the job market is weak -- so, you wanna buy my hot new TV service?

It seems inevitable that the slowing U.S. economy will begin to spill over onto the sales of the voice, video, data and wireless bundles that telecom service providers are now peddling. Or it did to me -- bundled services come with a bigger cumulative price tag, and when consumers are cutting back, they are more likely to look at the bigger expenditures as a source for savings.

But that’s not necessarily the case, according to some of the industry analysts I polled for this column.

“Telecom services are probably among the last consumables to be affected by an economic slowdown,” said John Celantano, president of Skyline Marketing. “We can cut down on our driving, eating out, even hanging out by generally making up the difference in our social interaction, our entertainment and even our work, through increased use of phone, Internet, and video services. The carriers make it attractive for us to do so by creating flat-rate, all-you-can-eat bundles. So the relative cost to us is fixed whereas other needs or wants are subject to variable costs, ergo more discretionary spending, meaning we cut back when the money gets tight.”

Danny Briere, president of the TeleChoice consultancy, believes consumer requirements don’t change with the economic times.

“I'm not convinced the move towards consolidation of quad services into a quad bundle will be affected in a big way by the economy,” he said. “I think people want, first, the new functionality and, second, lower prices. I don't think this changes because of the economy. This is not a car or a house, it's a monthly telecom services bill that we’re talking about paying $15 bucks less on or so. If FiOS comes to town, that will move people. If there's a promotion, that will move people. But when someone loses their job, is their first thought to save $20 on their monthly telecom bill to save their house? I don't think so.”

Those comments certain jive with what Verizon said in announcing its earnings earlier this week. Despite careful scrutiny of all types of data, Verizon CFO Doreen Toben couldn’t find evidence of the bad economic times on the company’s sales.

“On a daily basis, I look at wireless sales, wireless disconnects, net adds and churns, broadband lines, FiOS TV sales, enterprise sales,” she said. “Plus we have been looking hard at discretionary services -- ringtones, music, games, FiOS premium channels, video on demand, DVRs. We look at write-offs, bad debts, disconnects, non-pays. We look at how things go with mortgages, delinquencies and unemployment. And based on all that, I don’t see much trend change at all for us.”

So what do you think? Is demand likely to go soft when times get tough? Will thousands of Americans use the checks they get from the government to buy HDTVs and pay more for service? Let me know at carol.Wilson@penton.com which way you see this going.