Cisco: Mobile video driving data traffic explosion

Mobile data traffic has seen extremely strong growth and is expected to increase 66 more times from 2008 to 2013, driven primarily by the use of video in the mobile network, according to Cisco’s latest Visual Networking Index (VNI) mobile forecast released today. Mobile data traffic will reach one exabyte, or one billion gigabytes, per month over the same time period, which is half the time it took fixed traffic to reach the same point, according to the company.

“Nearly a half-billion new subscribers came on to the mobile network last year because mobile phones and devices and the freedom and flexibility they offer give us an extension of our lifestyle,” Doug Webster, senior director of service provider marketing for Cisco, said on a Webcast event today discussing the results. “It’s part of all aspects of our life…We now have more than 3 billion subscribers worldwide on mobile networks, about half of the adult population worldwide.”

Cisco began gathering and analyzing IP network data for internal development. It started, Webster said, with the simple question: What is the affect on the network going to be? The company couldn’t find a source who could answer it, so Cisco took existing third-party forecasts and business assumptions and set to answer it on its own.

Arielle Sumits, senior manager of service provider marketing at Cisco, said monthly global IP traffic in December 2012 will be 11 exabytes higher than in the previous year, a single-year increase that will exceed the amount by which traffic increased in the eight total years since 2008. Video on-demand, IPTV and Internet TV will account for nearly 90% of all consumer IP traffic in 2012, with mobile data traffic doubling each year from now until 2012.

“Underlying this trend is the breakdown of the mobile walled garden and opening of networks to over-the-top media traffic,” Sumits said, citing Pandora, a free online music app, as an example. “All the behavior you see on the fixed network then migrates to mobile network and has a multiplier effect.”

Cisco found that mobile data traffic will exceed mobile voice traffic by 2010, with video totaling 64% of that traffic by 2013. Yet, while two-way video (such as videoconferencing) has seen traction on the fixed network, it is one behavior that not many consumers are taking mobile. Most video traffic is still coming from users watching clips on free online Web sites, including Hulu and YouTube. Western Europe still beats the US on video consumption, accounting for 73% of all mobile data traffic by 2013. Outside of handsets, video watching is increasing primarily on laptops. Cellular data card subscribers will consume 4.3 GB a month in the US, up from 528 megabytes last year, although still lagging behind Europe.

Cisco is now extending its mobile Internet findings to consumers as well. Those wireless users who own either the Apple iPhone or BlackBerry Storm can download a free mobile application, the Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST). The app lets users measure their network speeds over WiFi or cellular networks where applicable, based on both the location and time of the test. The feedback on Web, audio and video grade lets the user understand what their phone is capable of doing at any given time as well as compare their network speeds with other iPhone or Storm users. To date, Cisco GIST for iPhone usage indicates that among more than 42,000 users from 60 countries, the global average WiFi speeds were 1153 kb/s, and the global average cellular speed was 475 kb/s.