Nov 30, 2000 12:00 PM,

Top 10 Wireless Carriers

John Rockhold, Wireless Review

Have the mighty fallen? Or have they just followed the old saying: “If you can’t beat them, join them”? Consolidation and growth have radically redesigned the face of the wireless industry. Compare Wireless Review’s 1999 Top 25 listing to this year’s Top 10, and you’ll see new names but familiar faces.

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Wireless-service providers were ranked based on their subscriber numbers at the end of the third quarter. Revenue figures are through nine months, ending Sept. 30. All information was gathered from the providers’ Web sites, third-quarter releases and from the providers themselves. Analysts from the Yankee Group outlined each provider’s main strength and most pressing challenge, while also offering additional commentary.

1. Verizon
Dennis Strigl, president & CEO
Position in 1999 Top 25: 2, 4, 6, 12, 18, 21 (companies prior to merger)

Subscribers: 26.3 million
Revenue: $10.2 billion
Service: National
POPs: 240 million
Technology: CDMA 800MHz & 1.9GHz, Analog 800MHz
Ticker Symbol: none
CTO: Dick Lynch
Employees: 32,000
ARPU: $52
Churn: 2.5%
Slogan: Simple, National, Affordable. Join In
Web Site: www.verizonwireless.com

Analyst Perspective
Strength: Best combination of subscriber base size, coverage area and digital penetration
Challenge: To become a leader not only in market share, but product and service innovation
Comment: Have been slow to roll out data services

2. Cingular
Stephen M. Carter, CEO
1999: 3 (SBC Wireless) & 5 (BellSouth Mobile Systems)

Subscribers: 19 million (estimated)
Revenue: $8.87 billion (BellSouth Wireless & SBC Wireless combined)
Service: National
POPs: 190 million
Technology: GSM 1.9GHz, TDMA 800MHz & 1.9GHz
Ticker Symbol: none
CTO: Bill Clift
Employees: 28,000
ARPU: $49.5 (BellSouth & SBC average)
Churn: non-disclosed
Web Site: www.cingular.com

Analyst Perspective
Strength: Strong penetration, presence and brand awareness in existing markets
Challenge: Need to consolidate multiple brands, service offerings and organizations into a national focus
Comment: Have holes in footprint, which will require them to acquire spectrum in key markets, including additional spectrum in New York City

3. AT&T Wireless
John Zeglis, AT&T Wireless Group chairman & CEO
1999: 1

Subscribers: 15 million (with partnership markets)
Revenue: $7.5 billion
Service: National
POPs: 270 million
Technology: TDMA850MHz & 1.9GHz
Ticker Symbol: AWE (NYSE)
CTO: Rod Nelson
Employees: 21,000
ARPU: $68.5
Churn: 2.9%
Slogan: Your World Close at Hand
Web Site: www.attws.com

Analyst Perspective
Strength: Has some of the highest-value customers, with ARPUs near top of industry
Challenge: Can it continue to be market innovator as it has been with programs such as Digital One Rate and PocketNet?
Comment: Spectrum rich: 30+MHz on average in 80% of country; 90% of network is digital

4. Sprint PCS
Charles Levine, COO
1999: 9

Subscribers: 9.2 million (with affiliates)
Revenue: $4.3 billion
Service: National
POPs: 270 million
Technology: CDMA 1.9GHz
Ticker Symbol: PCS (NYSE)
CTO: Oliver Valente
Employees: 26,000
ARPU: $59
Churn: 3%
Slogan: The Clear Alternative to Cellular
Web Site: www.sprintpcs.com

Analyst Perspective
Strength: Strong distribution channels — can leverage retail relationships to reach mass-market customers
Challenge: Can it continue to maintain aggressive subscriber growth? Third-quarter subscriber additions lower than expected
Comment: Although it has good coverage footprint, needs to improve network quality to compete with the big three

5. Nextel
Timothy M. Donahue, president & CEO
1999: 10

Subscribers: 6.2 million
Revenue: $3.75 billion
Service: National
POPs: 200 million
Technology: iDEN, SMR
Ticker Symbol: NXTL (NASDAQ)
CTO: Barry West
Employees: 14,000
ARPU: $75
Churn: 2%
Slogan: How Business Gets Done
Web Site: www.nextel.com

Analyst Perspective
Strength: Highest-value customers in industry — strong presence within business markets
Challenge: Will need additional spectrum in upcoming auctions to broaden market strategies, particularly for 2.5G and 3G deployment
Comment: Product offering of Direct Connect provides unique value to customers

6. Alltel
Joe T. Ford, chairman & CEO
1999: 7

Subscribers: 6 million
Revenue: $2.45 billion
Service: Midwest, Southeast & Southwest
POPs: 72 million
Technology: CDMA 800MHz
Ticker Symbol: AT (NYSE)
CTO: John Haley
Employees: 26,000
ARPU: $49
Churn: 2.45%
Slogan: The Power to Simplify
Web Site: www.alltel.com

Analyst Perspective
Strength: High penetration in existing markets and long-term roaming agreement with Verizon provides ability to translate regional presence into national success
Challenge: “National” providers threaten to take market share in traditional strongholds
Comment: Bundling strategy offers efficiency in services and distribution

7. VoiceStream
John Stanton, chairman & CEO
1999: 15 (Omnipoint) & 16

Subscribers: 3.1 million
Revenue: $1.27 billion
Service: Midwest, Northeast & West
POPs: 220 million
Technology: GSM 1.9GHz
Ticker Symbol: VSTR (NASDAQ)
Executive Vice President of Engineering: Tim Wong
Employees: 9,300
ARPU: $52
Churn: 3%
Slogan: Get More From Life
Web Site: www.voicestream.com
Pending: Acquisition of Powertel, merger with Deutsche Telekom (DT)

Analyst Perspective
Strength: Merger with DT provides infusion of capital — combination of DT’s overseas expertise with VoiceStream’s strong management team
Challenge: Will be difficult to gain substantial market share quickly in an already crowded and competitive market
Comment: Only GSM operator in United States needs to acquire key spectrum assets to complete national footprint

8. US Cellular
John E. Rooney, president & CEO
1999: 11

Subscribers: 2.9 million
Revenue: $1.13 billion
Service: East, Midwest & West
POPs: 24.9 million
Technology: CDMA 800MHz, TDMA 800MHz
Ticker Symbol: USM (AMEX)
CTO: James D. West
Employees: 5,000
ARPU: $46.5
Churn: 1.8%
Slogan: The Way People Talk Around Here
Web Site: www.uscellular.com

Analyst Perspective
Strength: Properties fill footprint gaps for several providers and allows for significant roaming traffic
Challenge: Can it continue to run dual technologies (TDMA and CDMA) to accommodate roaming partners?
Comment: Will its data strategy follow that of its strategic partners?

9. Western Wireless
Mikal Thomsen, president & COO
1999: 13

Subscribers: 976,500
Revenue: $541 million
Service: Midwest & West
POPs: 9.6 million
Technology: Analog 800MHz
Ticker Symbol: WWCA (NASDAQ)
VP of Engineering: Terry Benz
Employees: 2,400
ARPU: $65
Churn: non-disclosed
Web Site: www.wwireless.com

Analyst Perspective
Strength: Footprint is attractive to national providers for roaming traffic
Challenge: Needs to establish key roaming relationships as revenue gets boost from roaming traffic
Comment: Focusing on TDMA as digital technology of choice to provide compatibility with key roaming partners (AT&T, Cingular)

10. Dobson
Everett Dobson, chairman & CEO
1999: 20

Subscribers: 854,000
Revenue: $377.8 million
Service: Midwest, Northeast & Southwest
POPs: 6.8 million
Technology: TDMA 850MHz, CDMA 1.9GHz
Ticker Symbol: DCEL (NASDAQ)
Senior Vice President: Tim Duffy
Employees: 2,200
ARPU: $42
Churn: 2.15%
Slogan: Plans That Fit the Way You Talk
Web Site: www.dobson.net

Analyst Perspective
Strength: Cellular presence in several large Midwestern rural markets
Challenge: Very low industry ARPU ($42)
Comment: Niche market player

Best of the Rest
Subscriber numbers for wireless-service providers that fell short of making the top 10
11. Powertel
803,000
12. CenturyTel
741,000
13. Qwest
691,000
14. Rural Cellular
530,000
15. Centennial
445,000