Tipping the scales

The upcoming presidential election is likely to be extremely close. So close, in fact, that it conceivably could be decided by the quirkiest of demographics within the block of undecided voters or by some seemingly benign attribute that causes a marginal Democrat or Republican to switch sides.

We may never know in the end what actually tips the scales one way or the other. But there will be no shortage of pundits and analysts sharing their opinions. So let me be the first to suggest that the telecom worker will make all the difference. (The good thing about a close race is that any and all reasons given for making the difference are plausible.)

I don't know yet which telecom worker will tip the election: the white collar or blue-skirted middle manager that has a 30% percent chance of being a member of their company's political action committee (according to a 2003 report by BIPAC) or the butt set-toting repairman who has a much higher chance of belonging to a union. Yes, the management/labor dynamic plays out in every election, but until the contest four years ago, most voters forgot how important one vote could be.

By supporting their company's PAC, 30% of managers in the following telecom companies and organizations (and more not listed here) have in turn supported the Bush campaign (and are assumed to be voting for him:) Alltel, Harris Corporation, the USTA, AT&T, Qwest, SBC, Sun Microsystems, Convergys, Qualcomm, BellSouth, SureWest Communications, the CTIA, CenturyTel, Siemens, CompTel/Ascent, TDS Telecommunications, Western Wireless, MCI and, yes, the Magazine Publishers of America.

On the other hand, the industry's primary unions--the Communications Workers of America (CWA) and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW)--are solidly in the Kerry camp. Now, union members don't always vote the conscience of their bargaining units, and 70% of management is still PAC-independent, so it's impossible to calculate which candidate the majority of telecom workers prefer.

Aligning oneself with either interest group means voting in the best interest of the company store on one hand or for one's own self-interest on the other--both worthy causes. But this time around, the election seems to be about much more than this. And I suspect more than a few voters will be thinking about bigger, broader issues this November. That is why I say that the difference in this election will be made by those telecom workers who vote their conscience, rather than those who let their conscience be guided by a higher power--their PAC or their Union.

Of course, you'll never hear this particular demographic credited by CNN or FoxNews, but those voters will know in their hearts that they voted out of broader national and global concerns and not out of the self-interest of their PACs and unions.

Whichever ticket fills that bill for you, give it your vote. But this time around, let it be your own. Telecom will survive another four years.

E-mail me at tmcelligott@primediabusiness.com.