Swimming upstream

A funny thing happened while traveling to five tradeshows and one vacation over the course of the past nine weeks: I got to see the real world interacting with technology.

Away from the marketing slides showing happy-faced consumers and stern-looking business people staring at computer screens, I saw the following: lots of people listening to music that was presumably downloaded legally to their MP3 players or iPods; a smattering a travelers watching movies on DVD or via download; a couple of corporate users on the phone with their helpdesks; and no one firing up a Wi-Fi handset, at least not yet. Wide-scale availability of broadband would obviously make all four user experiences more pleasant.

Based on recent conversations with several access vendors, though, the tide toward ubiquitous coverage seems to have gone south. In its place is a new emphasis on upstream bandwidth. Increasing the long-neglected upstream channel makes sense in theory, given the number of applications--particularly related to digital photography--which would utilize it. Or, as one vendor put it, "Everyone has digital cameras and processes them online, so you have to assume everyone will soon do the same with video."

And no one can deny that gaming as an online application presents a significant opportunity for carriers. But aren't we getting just a bit ahead of ourselves here? While you and I may process photos via ofoto, Shutterfly or Snapfish, there's still a good portion of the world that does it the old fashioned way--taking it to the local drugstore-- even if they have a digital camera.

Thinking ahead is healthy for the market. Access vendors should be talking about future applications lest they be shunted into the role of commodity suppliers. But until consumers learn to walk with broadband, the industry can't teach them to run.

E-mail me at vvittore@primediabusiness.com.