Supercomm and everything after

ATLANTA--A highly anticipated mood of guarded enthusiasm is pervasive at a decidedly smaller, quieter and more reserved Supercomm 2003 here this week, as a telecom industry dealing with the effects of economic sluggishness labors to show the world it is still big and active but more focused, realistic and fiscally responsible.

On the show floor, technology developers are showing incremental advancements and even some new initiatives, perhaps easing anxiety somewhat about how much technology innovation has been threatened by the downturn. Switch vendors are exhibiting signs of softer, more IP-centric behavior; developers of access technology are showing how they can help arm telcos for a video-led fight against cable; software developers are angling to show carriers that if they spend a little more they could save a lot; and practically everyone is at least talking about Wi-Fi wireless LANs and how they might fit in somewhere, someday.

The ongoing dearth of carrier capex spending is obviously still a major concern of technology vendors here, but even from there come some encouraging signs, with the RBOCs banding together to spur fiber-to-the-home development and more and more carriers picking vendors to help them put their packet transition plans in action. (For specifics on the above and more news coming out of Supercomm, click on the News tab at www.telephonyonline.com, and also see this week's issue of Telephony.)

Perhaps the only surprise so far is that one of the most-anticipated trends of this industry's transition--the consolidation, both on the carrier side and among technology vendors, that everyone seems to think is a highly necessary balm to aid recovery--has yet to materialize. In still-struggling times when the spotlight of Supercomm puts all of telecom under increased scrutiny, maybe that's the news everyone would rather keep to themselves until after the show.

Contact me at jmeyers@primediabusiness.com.