Return of the kings?

As long as some RBOCs stayed on the VoIP sidelines it was easy to believe that once they entered the game, everything would change. Adoption would skyrocket. Spending on infrastructure and software would soar. The strange new face of telecom would come into sharper focus and we would see the once and future kings of communication seize their swords, mount their steeds and lay waste to the Orcs and Balrogs of land-based competition.

However, with the news this week that SBC has joined Qwest and Verizon in the residential VoIP market, that faith will be tested. All assumptions go out the window now that three of the four major carriers have committed themselves along with AT&T to doing battle on the fields of VoIP. They will now have to perform.

Analysts have gone so far as to say that startups such as Vonage will soon be thanked for the market jumpstart and either sent packing or gobbled up as the big boys enter the space. That won't happen if the RBOCs got into this space just to say they are in it. They will have to be aggressive if they want to win converts and retain curious customers.

As we have seen over the years, saying they are entering a market does not mean the RBOCs will go after it aggressively. For example, electronic billing--though it is not the competitive advantage it once was thought to be--has been available for years, yet RBOCs have let that technology develop at the customer's snail's pace. And they arguably could have been even more aggressive with DSL rollouts and not allowed the cable companies such a foothold for the coming battle for residential VoIP customers.

Carriers such as Verizon that view VoIP as a secondary offering, to be used perhaps as a last resort to keep customers from fleeing, are evidently not planning an aggressive campaign. It is too soon to tell how aggressive SBC will be. And Qwest, aggressive or not, has not made a lot of progress in the residential VoIP market. Even AT&T's vaunted CallVantage offering is said to be struggling to bring new customers on board.

So what we may be left with is a war of attrition where companies such as Vonage whittle away at the customer base of carriers, while the carriers prance around on their ponies with Mithril coats shining in the fading sun and the glint of their swords dwindling as they rest comfortably in their leather sheaths.

That doesn't sound like much fun.

E-mail me at tmcelligott@primediabusiness.com.