Quirks, comments, cool things: A Web Blog

June 24, 2004, 2:30 p.m.: Supercomm has stopped replenishing the coffee in the press room. How do they expect us to work under these conditions? If they want us to leave, they should just break out the firehoses.--Kevin Fitchard

June 24, 2004, 12:42 p.m.: So what's the deal with the abandoned smoothie bar just around the corner from Starbucks? It has served as a meeting room and a lunch table for many people the last few days. Just this morning, it was a bed for some guy who looked like he might have stayed in McCormick Place overnight to get a leg up on all those last-day-discounts on telecom equipment. But no smoothies are in the house. We're in Chicago in the summer--where's a smoothie when you really need one?--Dan O'Shea

June 24, 2004, 12:34 p.m.: You don’t need to look at your watch to know Supercomm 2004 is winding down—the palpable energy and momentum of the last few days is gone, and the handful of folks who remain here at the show seem to be sleepwalking through the last few hours of the day. But the general consensus is that this was the best Supercomm in years: People seem genuinely optimistic about where this industry is headed. If you’re here, you understand; if you’re not, make it a point to attend Supercomm 2005, where I suspect things are going to get really interesting. So who’s up for the Pepper Canister?--Jason Ankeny

June 23, 2004, 4:13 p.m.: Bob Metcalfe, the father of the Ethernet protocol and founder of 3Com, is a winsome guy and got more than his share of laughs during the metro Ethernet panel discussion in which he participated this afternoon. His most quotable crowd pleasers were (better when he delivered them, but):

• "You're familiar with Moore's Law. Andy Grove had a law: The bandwidth available from local exchange carriers doubles every 100 years."

• "Our teenagers are stealing music today, but in the future they'll need more bandwidth to steal video games, software and feature-length films."

• "It's beautiful that you can carry Ethernet over Sonet and Sonet over Ethernet. Somebody out there must be carrying Ethernet over Sonet over Ethernet over Sonet to ease some sort of migration.

• " "I don't think [free space optics] is taking the world by storm. In fact, I think storms are a problem for FSO."--Ed Gubbins

June 23, 2004, 2:42 p.m.: Moderating panels is always an interesting proposition. Depending on the panelists, it can devolve into a bunch of marketing drivel or, worse yet, a group of people who are so paranoid about revealing company secrets they say nothing at all. Today’s panel put on by Telephony and Relevant C luckily had enough interesting speakers, including the head of operations for Vonage, a Canadian cable operator, the guy charged with putting Wi-Fi into McDonald’s, a WiMAX vendor, an advertising rep from a subsidiary of Leo Burnett and a Merrill Lynch analyst. Most interesting topic from my perspective as moderator was the evolving business model of video. While the big-head thinkers in the telco TV segment are talking up the possibility of on-demand for everything including traditional broadcast, it’s clear that model is going to have a lot of problems. Not the least of which is advertisers who are loathe to put ads that can be skipped with the push of a button. However, when it comes to customer convenience and demand, I’m still firmly in the camp that believe TiVo and other personal video recorders will give carriers a choice: do it or be shunted to a corner of the market.--Vince Vittore

June 23, 2004, 2:40 p.m.: Hugh Hefner may have the mansion and fancy pajamas, but when you come to Chicago for Supercomm and stay in places like the Hotel Monaco, you get to one-up the aging playboy by lounging around in one of these (see photo). There was one in every closet. I was asked not to model it as Telephony is not prepared to litigate any resulting lawsuits for indecent exposure or cruel and unusual punishment. However, there are two more days to go. And if we have any more nights like the last one at Jeff Pulver’s excellent event at the House of Blues last night, we may all be showing up at Supercomm in one of these. --Tim McElligott

June 23, 2004, 1:59 p.m.: For the last 20 minutes or so, the Internet service in the Supercomm press center has been down. Oh, the irony. Alanis Morrisette writes songs about this kind of thing. --Jason Ankeny

June 23, 2004, 1:14 p.m.: The Hula Networks booth features real live hula dancers. That’s fantastic. Just wait until Supercomm 2005--the booth for my new start-up Stripper Networks is gonna blow you guys away.--Jason Ankeny

June 23, 2004, 9:39 a.m.: I woke up early for this? Time Warner Cable chairman Don Logan was Supercomm’s featured speaker this morning, taking 45 minutes to say virtually nothing—his address was little more than a history of the cable industry, with almost nothing to say about its future. Logan’s basic points were that cable must add new value, keep customers happy and do a better job of marketing itself. Of course, you could swap out cable for the soft pretzel vendor outside the Supercomm press center and the same basic business arguments would apply. No news, pedestrian insight, monotone presentation…Worst. Keynote. Ever.—Jason Ankeny

June 22, 2004, 4:20 p.m.: The line at the Starbucks just inside the exhibit floor is now TWENTY-FIVE PEOPLE LONG. Come to think of it, it was about that long when I walked by it this morning. If your schedule is so loose that you can wait in line behind 25 people, why do you even need coffee? Why not just take a nap?--Ed Gubbins

June 22, 2004, 3:46 p.m.: So there is little more than a week left to the end of the quarter, and Verizon still hasn’t announced this consumer/small business VoIP service they’ve been promising for the last several months. In fact, their big press conference today was about packet switching in the network, not packets from the domicile. Verizon spokesman Eric Rabe insisted, however, that there will be a big announcement shortly. Let’s see what they can pull together in seven days. --Kevin Fitchard

June 22, 2004, 3:31 p.m.: Although it was early in the day, 10:50 a.m. to be exact, a young lady caught my eye as she passed by with a sign that read, FREE BEER. Never one to miss a free beer or talk up a pretty lass, I thought I would get my Supercomm off on the right foot with a little suds. After all, this is an international conference and somewhere in the world it was a respectable drinking hour. I follow her with only the slightest drool and wag to my tongue. Free beer--how could I not. Unfortunately, she turned corners on the crowded show floor much too fast and the hordes that fell in line behind here cut me off from my pursuit. I found myself standing smack dab in the middle of Acterna’s booth where I had my 11:00 appointment. I cursed my luck but found CEO John Peeler in a fine mood. Perhaps he knew something about the location of the free beer. More likely, the spring in his step and the upbeat lilt of his voice had more to do with the his company’s 18% growth rate over last year and the new line of VoIP test products he was announcing. I hope by the end of the day I pick up that girl’s trail. Till then, it’s off to see and get some SMARTS, talk to Acme Packet and collect free stuff.--Tim McElligott

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June 22, 2004, 3:01 p.m.: After the umpteenth marketing presentation on VoIP, this supposedly varied array of services all begin to sound the same. From integrated instant messaging, to “on the fly” conferencing, to collaboration features--everyone seems to be offering the same thing. And if I hear one more person chirp “find-me-follow-me” with overstated enthusiasm, I’ll probably vomit. A little while ago AT&T, here to promote their CallVantage service, made a similar pitch, and to my surprise they actually threw a new idea out. While AT&T has the standard feature set, they’re introducing a service that allows mobile users to transfer their calls mid-conversation to their home extensions. The underlying usefulness appears seems to revolve around the sheer volume of cell phone calls people receive while at home (nobody wants to dial a number you MIGHT be at when they can dial a number you WILL be at). Not world-changing, and not that much less time-consuming than just saying, “I’ll call you back on the landline,” but nifty nonetheless. --Kevin Fitchard

June 22, 2004, 2:56 p.m.: "It will be a pretty messy deal, like watching sausage being made," said Carlton O'Neal, vice president of marketing at Alvarion, regarding the WiMAX Forum's "plugfests" early next year that will lead to WiMAX products certified for interoperability. Not that it won't be a productive experience... With Alvarion, Aperto Networks, Redline and others recently launching their WiMAX strategies, and vendor giant Motorola joining the WiMAX Forum, the pre-certification buzz is thickening. Few details about the plugfests are available now, and even after they're over, don't expect too hear too much from vendors about any compromises or product adjustments they had to make to ensure interoperability. However, the bottom line is that the all-nighters vendor technicians will pull to get the plugfests done will have a pay-off: a market poised for rapid growth because service providers won't have to worry about the limits of proprietary solutions. --Dan O'Shea

June 22, 2004, 1:34 p.m.: Every time I attend a technology panel presentation at a telecom trade show, I scan the pocket-protected audience, and I consider the combined cerebral might of the group. These are highly trained, expensively educated engineers, Ph.D.s, executives, I think to myself, a formidable collection of advanced technology professionals with IQs higher than my paycheck, and I try to guess which ones will discover in the midst of the panel discussion that they've left their cell phones on, go red-faced and rummage through their pants while stumbling toward the door. I often think, "Why are you attending a seminar to learn about 'Mastering the migration to the next-generation of advanced communications' when you clearly haven't mastered the rules governing current communications (or the world of ettiquete, for that matter)?" These are the people at the vanguard of communications technology. If they don't use the stuff right, who can we expect will? --Ed Gubbins

June 22, 2004, 10:30 a.m.: Integration is becoming increasingly important in the telco video world. As if to prove that you can't have enough of it, Tut Systems is on the floor showing its software running video over eight--yes, eight--different vendors' DSLAMs: Calix/Ciena, Optical Solutions, Paradyn, Telstrat, Zhone, Occamm, Panaway and Paradyne. What makes the demo cool, though, is that all eight vendors' results are put on a large flat screen, allowing you to actually make side-by-side quality comparisons (see photo below). The end result? They all look virtually the same to the untrained (and consumer) eye. --Vince Vittore

Tut Systems' demo running video over eight DSLAMS

June 22, 2004, 8:10 a.m.: Is it a bad sign to be running on fumes before the show even opens? Yesterday's Telephony-hosted VoIP event was a big success but incredibly draining. Today promises to be filled with an avalanche of press releases that say little to nothing, but still must be covered. When it all stops on Thursday afternoon, how many of these "big deals" will be of real significance? I suspect more than in previous years--but with the industry beginning its recovery phase, the hype level promises to run ahead of actual returns to health. --Vince Vittore

June 21, 2004, 8:00 p.m.:

Lucent Technologies’ mammoth facility in suburban Lisle, Ill. was surely designed to intimidate visitors, such as those who took the day trip offered by Lucent on the Monday before Supercomm. Seemingly comprised of nothing but glass, the building’s most striking feature is the massive dish shape that the glass assumes above the main entrance. Several stories high and pointed diagonally skyward, the glass dish makes Lucent’s Lisle office look like some place a James Bond villain would live--the ones with giant space-laser death rays and odd pets. No word on whether the Lucent Lair includes such a feature, but it definitely makes the Porsche building across the street look boring. --Ed Gubbins

June 21, 2004, 2:15 p.m.: Sprint's Oliver Valente mentioned the work his company is doing with Time Warner as the MSO delves into the world of VoIP. For years, analysts have speculated on potential telco merger partners for Sprint down the road. Most of the focus has been on Verizon Communications, because it has a lot of money and its wireless arm--like Sprint PCS--uses CDMA. Certainly such a deal would allow Verizon to get bigger in areas it already competes, but it would seem like Sprint would be even more attractive to a cable company seeking to provide the wireline-video-broadband-wireless home run. While Sprint's phone background would be helpful as cable makes VoIP offerings, Sprint PCS would be the real attraction. None of the cable outfits own their own wireless networks, and Sprint PCS is nationwide and uses a technology with a proven migration path to 3G offerings. In addition, Sprint PCS is not in a spectrum crunch that would require an MSO buyer to make big cash outlays at auction time. --Donny Jackson

June 21, 2004, 1:15 p.m.:

What was that brown thing I just ate for lunch? It tasted better than the white thing, but I’m still concerned. --Kevin Fitchard

June 21, 2004, 11:19 a.m.: In his keynote address, “VoIP--A Hobson’s Choice?,” Level 3 Communications CTO and President of Voice Technologies Jack Waters tossed out an intriguing idea: The U.S. VoIP market could follow the precedent set by mobile virtual network operators like prepaid wireless carriers Virgin Mobile or Boost Mobile. The economic and competitive conditions that gave rise to the MVNO model in Europe are very similar to the present conditions in the U.S. VoIP market, Waters contends--therefore, it’s entirely possible that once VoIP reaches critical mass, we could see non-traditional players with strong, recognizable brands entering the provider market and selling service over a national carrier’s IP network. The MVNO approach has proven wildly successful in the U.S. wireless market, with carriers carving out growing subscriber niches by carefully targeting specific demographic groups like teens and twenty-somethings; I’m hard-pressed for a compelling argument against why it couldn’t happen again in the VoIP space. (By the way, the title of Waters’ presentation refers to the theory of Hobson’s choice, in which only one choice exists, with no other alternatives. VoIP is a Hobson’s choice for service providers, Waters said: “It’s not a question of if it will happen, just when it will happen.”) --Jason Ankeny

June 21, 2004, 11:00 a.m.: So what are these enhanced features we keep hearing about? Three keynotes into the day, and we’ve only heard the vaguest of references to the apps that will change communications as we know it and create bountiful streams of revenue for any carrier who takes the VoIP leap. To be fair, Sprint CTO Oliver Valente and Level 3 CTO Jack Waters would be remiss if they came out and named specific applications even if they have fairly good ideas of what they’ll be—you don’t want to give up too much to the competition. Also, you don’t want to look foolish if you turn out to be wrong. After all, who have predicted years ago that the mainstay of 3G would be Baha Men ringtones and on-the-fly pixilated photos flying across the network? Certainly not me. --Kevin Fitchard

June 21, 2004, 10:37 a.m.: Next up is Oliver Valente, Sprint's VP of technology development. Among the nationwide carriers, Sprint has probably been the most proactive in deploying softswitching, investing $100 million in infrastructure so far, so Valente is speaking in terms of practice, not merely theory. He says that while data applications will drive adoption in the future, the low price point is currently the biggest driver behind enterprise VoIP uptake-for now, plain old voice remains the mission-critical app for enterprises. "Every customer we talk to is looking at this space, but they're wrestling with how to manage the IP environment," Valente said. "Customers are asking for reliable and secure service. [Service providers] must explain the cost savings and deliver reliability and security. Everyone's interested, the opportunity is huge, but it's still slow going." Valente also said that because of that slow growth, in the short-term carriers must maneuver to steal market share away from one another-which, from an objective standpoint, should be very entertaining to watch. --Jason Ankeny

June 21, 2004, 9:32 a.m.: Telephony's Web blog coverage of Supercomm 2004 begins at the VoIP: Service Provider Strategies conference our magazine is hosting today. Dubbed "the next killer app" by opening keynote speaker Lori Craven, executive VP and COO at signaling and switching solutions provider Tekelec, VoIP is the telecom industry's breakthrough technology du jour, and its promise and problems seemed a logical starting point for our first foray into the conference biz. According to Craven, VoIP represents the future of telecom, citing a recent Frost & Sullivan report projecting revenues of $1.4 billion by 2007; from there, she outlined both the challenges and the opportunities which the remainder of the conference will explore. The following is copied directly from Craven's presentation:

• Challenge: Regulatory requirements could affect business proposition

• Opportunity: Leverage market now and build flexibility to prepare for the future

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• Challenge: Perception of poor quality of service

• Opportunity: Provide superior quality of service

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• Challenge: How to transition from TDM to IP

• Opportunity: Minimize legacy investment with rapid transition to next generation

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• Challenge: Ensuring capex and opex savings

• Opportunity: Breakthrough in overall cost of ownership, resulting in lower cost structure

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• Challenge: Carriers' need to rapidly introduce new services to keep up with varying needs of different customer contingents

• Opportunity: Establishing a network infrastructure than can flexibly up-sell new services to any endpoint across the network

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• Challenge: Network security

• Opportunity: Partnerships among core, access and CPE providers necessary

So that's where we start. I'm looking forward to where we go from here. --Jason Ankeny