CAN NOKIA DRIVE MOBILE DATA?

When Nokia announced at Comdex that it had formed an open mobile architecture initiative with heavy hitters such as AT&T Wireless, Cingular Wireless, NTT DoCoMo, Vodafone, Motorola, Samsung, Toshiba and Symbian, among others, speculation began to circulate that the company was trying to follow the Microsoft example and gain control of the wireless Internet market.

The company may gain an edge on wireless data interoperability by visibly leading a pack of 17 wireless carriers and vendors on an initiative to create a global and open mobile software and services market. But it can’t take control of the wireless Internet--Microsoft-style--until the market has proved viable for a multitude of end users.

Nokia would have a better shot at becoming analogous with the mobile data movement once there is a large horizontal base of users actually using mobile devices for their data needs more than a couple of times a day. Perhaps interoperability will be the key in driving that usage, and ultimately the mobile data market.

Toward that end, Nokia will license separate terminal client components and a smart phone software platform. It even created a separate business unit, called Nokia Mobile Software, to manage the effort. While Nokia claims that all companies are welcome to join the initiative, Microsoft, Qualcomm and the top CDMA operators seem to be keeping their distance, indicating that Nokia might not be the only company trying to gain control of the wireless Internet market.

For Nokia or any other company to become the Microsoft of the wireless Internet, more end users must prove that mobile access to data can better their daily lives. Of course this cannot happen until the applications, terminals and services are widely available and economically feasible.

Another wireless industry initiative, combining big players claiming to be committed to certain products and services based on open mobile architecture enablers, might prove that the industry is devoted to driving the wireless Internet market. But an initiative alone cannot possibly determine which company will be in the driver’s seat.