Mood swings

If someone were to ask me right now to predict the outcome of the current turbulence surrounding competitive communications service providers, I’d probably give them a really disgusted look and say, “What am I, a freakin’ fortune teller?”

I might be a little less crass than that, but who knows? It would all depend on my current mood, which is pretty much shaped by what I did last night and how many people bumped into me on the train on the way to work this morning. Those factors, as well as a thorough and informed analysis of the pertinent financial events and market developments of the past several days and weeks.

Take yesterday, for example: I’m just standing there on the platform minding my own business and trying to read the damn paper without spilling my grande latte when all of a sudden some yahoo -- oh, wait… Yesterday a DSL service provider called New Edge Networks announced a big deal with Microsoft that makes New Edge’s DSL service part of Microsoft’s MSN HighSpeed consumer broadband play. New Edge is the company that’s trying to hit the small cities and towns that other DSL types can’t get to yet. So this distribution deal must be just the most recent achievement in an otherwise flawless execution of that strategy, right?

Not so fast. See, a couple weeks ago this same company announced that it had to eliminate 135 jobs and curtail its network buildout indefinitely to stretch out its cash. That’s not exactly a sure-fire indicator that it’s about to seal a big deal with Microsoft, is it? A few weeks before that, New Edge had announced the completion of a funding round worth $139.9 million. Given that, could you see the layoffs and cutbacks coming?

I cite this stuff as evidence of how difficult it is to make predictions right now in this volatile industry. These are exactly the types of thing things – along with those other reasons I mentioned earlier – that make me ornery when it comes to trying to figure out what’s about to happen. So until things smooth out and we get back to a point where we can easily predict megamergers, multibillion-dollar contracts or high-flying IPOs, I’m outta the prognostication business. I’m not a freakin’ fortune teller, after all.

Jason Meyers is the Editorial Director for both Upstart and Telephony. He is also moderator of the Broadband Networks discussion board. Give him hell at jason_meyers@intertec.com.