3G’s new proving ground

The launch of CDMA 1X EV-DO service in two major markets by Verizon Wireless this week will be the ultimate test bed for that mobile data technology platform, as well as for carriers’ ability to sell it to business customers. Eventually, it also could prompt carriers to either firm up how Wi-Fi fits into—or doesn’t fit into—their overall business and service plans.

While EV-DO service already is available in some markets and Verizon’s launch is not a surprise--given that the company announced its intentions at the CTIA show in March—the rollouts in San Diego and D.C. are significant both because of the size of the markets and the size of the carrier offering it. For Verizon Wireless, which seems to have surprised itself with how well testing of the service went, it represents an endorsement of and commitment to what essentially was an unproven technology. Given all the technology partners involved with Verizon Wireless in the rollouts, success presumably will boost the business of the EV-DO development community overall—particularly if it leads to additional market rollouts by Verizon Wireless and other CDMA carriers.

But success is not guaranteed by a launch, of course. Few wireless carriers, including Verizon Wireless, have proved their ability to penetrate the enterprise market effectively and convince that potentially lucrative customer base of the need to mobilize their IT operations. While Verizon Wireless likely has been scrambling behind the scenes to bolster its enterprise sales efforts, the real proof of the technology’s success will be customer numbers and, more important, new revenue generation. And that’s just the first step: Some observers believe EV-DO’s definitive destination is the broader consumer market, supporting data applications designed for multimedia handsets.

As for Wi-Fi, few supporters of either technology will come right out and say they consider formats like EV-DO to be competitive with wireless LAN—and, to be fair, the mobility characteristics of EV-DO do make the technologies divergent, at least in that respect. But let’s face it: It would come as a great surprise if major carriers continue to invest heavily in an advanced mobile data platform that proved successful and make new investments to integrate Wi-Fi into their offerings. Ultimately, the success of 3G and the advent of mobile multimedia could fence Wi-Fi inside niches like the enterprise and hospitality outfits—and out of the public network marketplace--once and for all.

E-mail me at jmeyers@primediabusiness.com.