Debbie does wireless data

In its 11 wireless predictions for 2005, consulting firm InCode made some fairly risqué calls, like its prediction of another major carrier consolidation, while other projections treaded safer ground, such as the rise of MVNOs among consumer media brands. But perhaps its most interesting forecast was on the subject of adult content's role in the U.S. wireless market.

According to InCode, it doesn't have one. Despite the fact that adult content is one of the few wireless content services proven to generate revenues and customers in Asia and Europe, U.S. carriers will most likely turn up their noses. Why? No carrier wants to be known as the first purveyor of wireless porn.

There's a tremendous difference between Europe and the U.S. culturally, and what is socially acceptable across the Atlantic won't fly so easily in the U.S. The rise of evangelicalism aside, a good deal of Americans disapprove of the watered down sex on network TV and whatever's showing at the movie theater, much less the explicit content behind blacked-out magazine covers on the news stand or the adult portals on the Internet. Sure, the cable industry gets away with bandying T&A on pay-per-view and adult programming bundles, but there are a few differences between the wireless and cable industry. One, most children don't own their own personal cable boxes, and two, there's a heck of a lot more competition in the wireless space than there is on the cable broadcasting front.

There is little differentiation among the major operators today in services offered. And while being the first to purvey adult content is certainly a way for one to set itself apart from the pack, it probably isn't the kind of differentiation a carrier has in mind, said InCode analyst Jorge Fuenzalida.

Give 'em a couple a years and a few and a chance to develop a few solid parental control systems, Fuenzalida said. Until then, America will have to get its porn the old fashioned way: the Internet.

E-mail me at kfitchard@primediabusiness.com.