Caution: Access shakeup in progress

One of the more interesting games journalists and analysts get to play on a regular basis is "What If." The game is very simple: pick a current event and figure out what would change if the circumstances shifted.

One of the more hotly discussed topics recently has been Tellabs' acquisition of AFC. Because of the difference in their respective share prices, there is some doubt that the acquisition will be completed or closed on the original terms. Which brings us to What If: What if the deal collapses and Tellabs doesn't acquire AFC?

From a financial perspective, there would be a breakup fee and more attorneys and investment bankers would get more fees. But more important, would the deal's collapse mean a significant shakeup for the access market, as has been implied by some analysts?

More than likely, no. The shifts have already begun, and won't stop simply because one merger falls through.

Regardless of what happens to its merger with Tellabs, AFC is clearly aiming for the bigger fish in the telecom pond. Not that it plans to ignore its traditional independent telco base, but some of those customers are feeling a little left out in the cold by all the attention being lavished on the likes of Verizon. That leaves a big opening that Calix, Zhone and Occam are trying to squeeze through. Throw ECI and UTStarcom into the mix and you've got the makings of a global battle for the U.S. access sector.

Correction: In last week's column, I stated that DISH and EchoStar could ultimately play significant roles as content providers to telco video services. DISH of course is EchoStar's brand and the sentence should have included DirecTV, which is being resold by numerous telcos including BellSouth.

E-mail me at vvittore@primediabusiness.com