Analyst: Tauzin-Dingell prospects worsen

Vermont Sen. James Jeffords’ defection from the Republican Party last week sparked a series of events that make the passage of a broadband-deregulation bill recently introduced in the House of Representatives by Billy Tauzin (R-La.) and John Dingell (D-Mich.) unlikely.

So says Bob Lane, senior telecommunications analyst with The Yankee Group.

“The possibility of that bill getting out of the Senate with the type of relief that the RBOCs are looking for is very slim,” he said. “Senator (Ernest “Fritz”) Hollings (D-S.C.) basically disagrees with that bill and is very skeptical of the RBOCs’ interest in opening the markets to competition.”

Hollings became the chairperson of the Senate Commerce Committee when Jeffords’ defection shifted the balance of power in the upper body of Congress to the Democrats. Hollings generally is perceived as being pro-CLEC.

The Tauzin-Dingell bill would allow incumbent local exchange carriers into long-distance data markets without first satisfying local-competition requirements of the Telecommunications Act of 1996.

Even prior to this latest development, the bill had less than smooth sailing since its introduction about a month ago. It narrowly avoided getting derailed in the House Commerce Committee--chaired by Tauzin--when a vote on a proposal that would have effectively gutted the bill ended in a deadlock. Eventually the bill made it out of committee, though by a slimmer-than-expected margin, according to Lane.

Last week, the House Judiciary Committee conducted its own review of the measure, which Lane believes is a setback for the bill.

“The CLECs have some friends on that committee, and judiciary generally tends to be more concerned about antitrust issues than the commerce committee,” he said.

Lane said supporters of Tauzin-Dingell soon may re-evaluate how much effort they want to put into the bill.

“The question now is, how much political capital does Tauzin and Dingell want to spend on trying to send this through the Senate in what would be an uphill battle?” he explained. “And, how much political capital will the RBOCs be willing to spend to move this forward, particularly because this bill could become a vehicle for RBOC bashing in the Senate.”