What Apple's new iPhone will mean for mobile operators

There are no loose lips at Apple, but during a 10 a.m. PT event tomorrow at its Cupertino headquarters the company plans, months behind schedule, to finally "talk iPhone," as it announced on media invites.

Apple does beautiful work of managing to impress at such events, and one sure bet is that by 11 a.m. there will be no shortage of consumer hearts filled with awe and longing. But what can mobile operators, which have surely already had a peak at the new device, expect?

Each new iPhone device, and each time it has landed at a new operator, has had a big impact on the overall mobile marketplace. So with a new iPhone just hours away, let's take a look at some of the rumors and speculation to try to measure its likely impact on mobile operators:

-- Rumor: It's not an iPhone 5. There are reports that it will instead be called the iPhone 4S (for small?), made of plastic instead of aluminum and glass and be offered at just $100 or less. The savings could be a boon to carriers as well, which over the last three years have borne a 78% increase in handset subsidies, according to a July report from Moody's. The firm argued that, while AT&T could take on still higher subsidies, as a competitive move against Verizon, such fees are particularly damaging to Sprint and other smaller carriers, who fight it tougher to absorb the costs (CP: AT&T's flexible device subsidies could be a nail in Sprint's coffin). A cheap iPhone would also help to convert feature-phone holdouts.

-- Rumor:Sprint is getting it. Sprint is expected to be finally admitted into the iPhone club, and to be the only one of the three carriers to pair it with an unlimited data plan (CP: Sprint, with an iPhone 5 expected next week, confirms unlimited data staying put). It also may be betting the company on an exclusive iPhone deal, at least according to the Wall Street Journal, which Monday said the operator cut a $20 billion deal to gain access to the iconic device. Gadget blog Boy Genius Report went one step further, claiming Sprint actually acquired exclusive access to the iPhone 5, while Verizon and AT&T would be getting the slightly less featured (including no 4G) iPhone 4S.

-- Speculation:Will other new carriers join the party? Nothing shifts the market like the introduction of a new iPhone, and each new carrier partner changes the dynamics of competition. Sprint has confirmed nothing, but is an expected new member to the club. Does Apple have other new members planned? "The number-one reason customers churn is lack of iPhone. Number one," Sprint CEO Dan Hesse said at a recent Goldman Sachs event, underscoring the device's importance (CP: Sprint CEO Hesse chats 'fireside' about what Sprint does and doesn't have). Apple needs to keep building market share. More than one new U.S. partner would accomplish this.

-- Rumor:NFC will be on board. While some argue that Apple will hold off until the technology is more widespread, last summer Apple hired NFC expert Benjamin Vigier and submitted a number of NFC-related patents. On Sept. 19 Google Wallet launched for Sprint Nexus S users, sprinkling the first drops of water into what will be the deep end of the pool. If droves of Apple users are suddenly equipped to begin making simple mobile payments, it'll surely encourage Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to launch Isis in short order and help to advance other efforts.

--Speculation:It's good news for AT&T. An Oct. 3 report from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech suggests that AT&T, and in the U.K. O2, which likewise was the first in its market to offer the iPhone, will benefit most from the new device. They have the largest number of users nearing the end of their contracts, and "iPhone owners are very loyal," states the firm, which additionally found 45% of BlackBerry owners planning to defect to the next-version iPhone.

-- Rumor:It may not sport LTE 4G. At MacWorld Asia, a China Unicom executive reportedly showed off an iPhone roadmap that paired the iPhone 5 with HSPA+ technology. While certainly fast, there's a solid argument that the technology isn't "true 4G," which would leave the iPhone inferior to a number of LTE-savvy Android handsets.

"I think that it would be a mistake on Apple's part not to include LTE in its new iPhone, since the high-speed networks are changing the way people consume content like video and movies. ... No matter what fantastic new features are available on the new iPhone, if it doesn't have LTE, it will really only appeal to existing Apple customers," Ken Hyers, an analyst with Technology Business Research, told Connected Planet.

Despite the cost efficiency of 4G for carriers, a non-LTE device matters little to them, suggests Hyers.

"They just want a new iPhone so they can flip all the existing iPhone customers, whose contracts are coming due soon, onto a new 2-year contract, and almost any iPhone will do," Hyers explained. "Carriers know that even if they don't have an LTE iPhone, they have enough Android devices running LTE to meet customer demand."