Black Friday Network Impact: Will It Be a Kindle Christmas, or an iPad New Year?

So what is at the top of this year’s holiday gift– and service provider “watch-out” – lists?

Here’s what some of those lists might look like as we head into the post-Thanksgiving, Black Friday holiday shopping rush:

1. The Kindle Fire

Amazon’s new tablet, available mid-November but released just in time for the holiday shopping season, could take the tablet phenomenon mainstream. Just $199 – but without 3G/4G and other network-impacting goodies like a two-way camera—the Fire nonetheless is getting high marks as both a book and Web consumption device as well as the perfect hand-held streaming HD video viewer (including Amazon content and video from included Netflix and Hulu apps).

Network impact assessment: Extremely high. The Kindle Fire won’t tax 3G/4G networks, but if sold in the millions it will drive loads of streaming video over customer Wi-Fi—and ultimately carrier broadband—networks.

2. The Apple iPad/iPhone 4S

By all accounts, Apple has another winner on its hands with the iPhone 4S – and sales of the iPad are likely to soar during the holidays as well. With the end of unlimited mobile data plans, operators are beginning to get a handle on the bandwidth impact of these iconic devices (even as more carriers get access to them). Siri: Will the iPhone 4S be a success? Answer: Most certainly.

Network impact assessment: Bandwidth-Medium; Business Model-Extremely High. What will be most interesting to see, especially with the sad passing of Apple leader Steve Jobs, is whether Apple will continue to dominate the mobile ecosystem or lose its iron grip to Google, Amazon – and mobile operators. With Amazon selling every smartphone in it store for 1 cent – EXCEPT for the iPhone –on Black Friday, Apple’s hegemony will be tested.

3. Game Systems and Internet TV Boxes

Millions of Xbox and PS3 platforms will likely find their ways into consumer hands this holiday season, each with the somewhat “hidden” capability to stream Netflix and other video services straight to the TV. At the same time, Internet “TV boxes,” especially Google TV, struggle mightily.

Network Impact: Fuzzy, Check Back Later. Over-the-top video is no doubt slamming carrier networks, even as this high-consumption on-ramp sees mixed success. Could that change in 2012?

4. Streaming Music and Video Apps

Spotify, MOG and Pandora encourage mobile users to stream music to their handsets while Netflix, HBO and other Web video players roll out mobile apps that could suck up even more wireless bandwidth.

Network Impact: Music, High; Video, TBD. Music apps will likely only proliferate (for instance, into cars). Whether users will want to (or get to, thanks to mobile usage caps) watch Netflix on the go remains to be seen.

5. The Network Knows Where you are Shopping

This one caught us by surprise, but probably shouldn’t have. Location vendor Path Intelligence’s FootPath location tracking technology will be used by two American malls on Black Friday to track shoppers’ paths.

Network Impact: Low; Business Model Impact: Huge Data collection with the system is anonymous, but as retailers have known forever, aggregated, anonymous retail information is wildly valuable. If mobile operators could become part of an ecosystem providing such location intelligence in a much bigger way (ie, more than two malls) an important new business opportunity opens up for them. The stickler: will consumers and privacy advocates let this fly? They might if shoppers gain some value out of being tracked, such as real-time discounts or coupons.