Android’s fast-paced success leading to fragmentation

In 2009, Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android platform shipped in 6 million devices, a number that is expected to more than triple in 2010. But Android’s resounding success is also the source of a potential problem, according to IMS Research. Since its launch in 2008, Google has released at least six different versions of the Android operating system to meet the demand for greater functionality on devices, resulting in a highly fragmented platform.

Since the release of Android 1.5 in April, Google has rapidly rolled out new versions of the Linux-based OS, resulting in a market with four different and incompatible versions of Android shipping simultaneously, IMS analyst Chris Schreck said.
“Fragmentation is a concern first and foremost for developers,” Schreck said in a research note. “Differentiating between strains of an OS, modifying code for each strain, and ensuring that a user obtains the appropriate version of a program aren’t practical possibilities for many mobile developers. Developer resources are notoriously limited, and adding incompatible strains within platforms to the already crowded smartphone OS space makes their uphill climb even steeper.”

While Android’s popularity is skyrocketing, its install base today is still relatively small compared to other operating systems, Schreck said, making the market for Android apps smaller than that of competing platforms such as the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone and the Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) BlackBerry. The multiple versions of Android in the market further compounds the problem, requiring some developers to make four different versions of the same application.

“When you further segment that group into different OS strains, the actual potential market for your application starts to look pretty small,” Schreck said. “Without Google addressing this issue, Android developers are going to find themselves working harder to reach fewer people.”

Developers aren’t the only ones suffering from Android’s fragmentation, Schreck said. For each variation of Android released, the investment in maintaining the platform goes up as they spend more time and money optimizing the new software releases for their devices and networks. Google does appear to be addressing the problem, Schreck said. As Android matures the core software will solidify, slowing down the pace of major updates. Google is also rumored to be considering taking over the management of software updates from handset vendors and operators, allowing direct over-the-air updates of the OS from Android Market. Those moves will help reign in fragmentation among the official versions of Android, but Schreck also pointed out that Android is open sourced and licensees are free to make whatever modifications to the code they like. While there haven’t been many examples of third-party Android releases, it could become a problem in the future.

"I expect Android to see considerable market share gains in the immediate and near future,” Schreck said. “However, to keep up that pace of growth, particularly in the high-end market, Google absolutely has to manage fragmentation. Otherwise, other operating systems like Symbian or the LiMo Platform, both of which take a harder line on platform fragmentation in the software license, will stand to gain as open-source alternatives.”