NFC mobile payment growth happening sooner or later, depending whom you ask

Is the role of near-field communications (NFC) technology in the growing mobile payment market being overhyped?

NXP semiconductor company CEO Rick Clemmer says the growth of NFC is more a matter of when than if.

NXP's technology is currently designed into more than 60 mobile devices featuring NFC technology. But while the company has estimated that 2011 shipments could run from 40 million to 100 million handsets, during a second-quarter earnings call Thursday, Clemmer shared that, despite more positive predictions, that figure is now expected to be lower.

"We currently see the ramp is likely to be towards the lower end, or perhaps even slightly below our initial range for 2011, as the mobile operators implement their deployment strategies," Clemmer said during the call, according to Near Field Communications World.

"We believe the shortfall is due to a combination of formulation and agreement on the specific business models to support the ecosystem," Clemmer continued, "as well as business challenges some handset OEMs are experiencing in the marketplace."

Major handset makers including Apple, Google and Nokia have plans to include the technology in upcoming devices, and it's similarly at the heart of Isis, the mobile payment venture being planned by AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile, as well as the Sprint-involved Google Wallet.

Verizon's mobile payment project with Payfone, by contrast, is browser based (CP: Verizon venture with Payfone and Amex speeds ahead of Isis NFC plans), while other solutions work to simply add the payment to the user's mobile phone bill — avoiding some of the arguments that have reportedly taken place around NFC, regarding whether the carrier or the device maker is responsible for the private user information residing on the NFC chip.

Juniper expects NFC transactions to rise from $240 billion this year to $670 billion by 2015, while Gartner expects overall mobile payments to reach 141.1 million users this year, up more than 38 percent from a year ago.

A day after NXP's dour forecast, Indentive Group, a tech company focused on identification-based technologies, announced that a "leading handset manufacturer" has chosen it to design and supply more than 1 million NFC tags, which over the next six months will be included in the boxes of NFC-enabled smartphones.

“Touching the phone to an NFC tag automatically triggers on-phone NFC applications, such as linking to a web address or URL, dialing a specific phone number, or having a map pop up to show nearby points of interest," Indentive's Scott Austin said in a statement. "Including the tags in-box is a great way to introduce NFC applications to consumers. We are excited to help pioneer innovative consumer programs that promote the use of NFC for mobile applications.”