Mobile video calling market rising, with carriers still unsure of how to cash in

Skype, Fring, Apple and now even Facebook are contributing to a mobile video-calling market that — while still in need of some smoothing out, say analysts — has plenty of room to grow.

And grow it will, says Juniper Research. While fewer than 1 in 10 smartphone owners currently use the technology, the firm expects more than 130 million to get on board by 2016.

"The increasing dominance of the smartphone in developed markets ... and the simplicity of the app download model have improved the market for mVoIP delivered through mobile clients downloaded to the handset, although there are still few alliances between [mobile network operators] and mVoIP service providers," the firm said in a statement.

In June, Skype and Fring offered updated apps for Android phone users to place free video calls (CP: New Skype and Fring Android VOIP apps may have carriers up at night) and weeks later Facebook, through a partnership with Skype, announced the availability of video calling through its Chat feature.

Despite a plethora of options, and the general popularity of the platforms, the capability has yet to catch on in a big-figure way.

Charles King, principal analyst with Pund-IT, told Connected Planet at the time of the Fring and Skype Android apps launch that he didn't expect either to help drive video calling in the short run.

"That could change over time, but the sheer number of Android versions and vendors suggest that developing the market will pursue a haphazard, catch-as-catch -can path unless or until the Android ecosystem (via Google) becomes more disciplined and predictable," King said. "If that happens, though, the sky could well be the limit."

Juniper analyst Anthony Cox similarly pointed out a need for greater standardization.

“Services such as Apple’s FaceTime have brought mobile video calling to the public consciousness,” Cox said in a statement. "However, the report also finds that lack of a standardized approach and the absence of a clear route to monetize new IP-based mobile video calling services may hold back mobile video calling from becoming a truly mass-market service for the foreseeable future."

King also imagined the carriers are "staying up nights," thinking of ways to monetize a space that's for now largely being offered for free, says Juniper, by "players wishing to kick-start the market."

Despite all that still needs figuring out, the Juniper report added, mobile video-calling growth will further be encouraged — both in user numbers and available services — by the rollout of 4G networks in earnest.