As the world turns

There are days when our industry is a virtual soap opera. Other days it drops all pretense and becomes a real soap opera. The latter is clearly in full force, and at the center of the drama is the blue globe of AT&T.

The current plots and subplots are almost too myriad to catalog. They include shareholder approval and the closing of the AT&T/TCI deal, former Teleport Communications Group head Robert Annunziata's bolt to Global Crossing (leading to speculation about more defections and a possible TCI reverse takeover) and AT&T's surreal analyst and press events.

AT&T, among other things, announced that:

* It believes it caught and will soon pass competitors in broadband network deployment.

* It can compete with anyone on price or performance.

* It has a well-articulated (according to AT&T) international strategy with the IBM data network as a place holder for the AT&T/BT joint venture.

* It is capping its 4ESS investment as it optimizes for a converged broadband networking world by recasting the network edge for IP applications-centricity (AT&T announced this last year but apparently needed to reiterate).

* It is executing against its strategy that if one controls network access and the network architecture one controls the customer.

AT&T intends to accomplish that last point by mixing its mishmash of wired assets with its mishmash of wireless assets. The wireless piece consists of undeveloped 38 GHz markets, the evolution of the AT&T Wireless narrowband network to IP readiness, and even Project Angel.

All this left me wondering why so much old news is good news. More astonishing was that the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and even the financials accept these claims. Most astonishing is that everyone seemed to miss the most important subplot of all: the aggressive launch of AT&T Personal Network Services coupled with significant price increases in most of AT&T's basic voice services.

After more than two decades of being "marketing and sales challenged," AT&T appears to have finally learned how to be a competitor. As an analyst I am delighted. This is more grist for the mill. As a consumer I am thrilled: more choice at cheaper prices. I can even overlook AT&T's antiquated strategic assumption that owning transactions end-to-end makes owning the customer a certainty.

I also begrudgingly admire AT&T's astuteness at co-opting the cable industry without the regulators slapping them with an equal access and interconnection regime, even as I bemoan public policy gutlessness to do right thing.

Whether or not one agrees with C. Michael Armstrong, he has a strategic vision and is willing to put his money where his mind and eyes wander. This makes AT&T dangerous. We happen to need a dangerous AT&T.

As with the soap operas on TV, the impact of intended and unintended actions can be profound. However, in real life the sets and cast of characters can change overnight without upsetting the fans.

Regarding the main plot, you have to love rumors that one week have AT&T cutting a deal with America Online, and the next week cutting their throats. Does it get any better than AOL leading the charge on opening up the TCI-and all cable networks-as they cut deals with SBC and Bell Atlantic on DSL?

Or, how about AT&T and @Home's strategic and financial entanglement of various portal companies, juxtaposed with AOL's purchase of Netscape and the long-rumored RBOC portal supposedly being whipped up by Pointcast? What about AT&T trying like heck to block RBOC entrance into long-distance, and the SBC/Ameritech and Bell Atlantic/GTE deals?

I'd like to welcome AT&T back among the market-driven. Rid yourself of those customers who can't cover their costs. Give us more packages that undercut each other and are inconsistent with each other. Confuse your call center agents as well as your customers and competitors. But keep those discounts flowing. You may not be perfect, but at least you are directionally correct.

Tune in next time for another exciting adventure.